3-3; -2.98pts Round 2 plays (2pts): Jim Furyk to beat Danny Lee -149 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] WON by 1 Furyk played better than he scored yesterday - he ranked 1st in dirving accuracy and 2nd in greens in regulation on the day - so there is optimism that he will score much better today. He also dominates this matchup 11-2-0 h2h in 2015 (10-2-0 in rd2 alone), so warranst the short odds on offer. Henrik Stenson to beat Rickie Fowler -125 @ Paddy Power LOST by 1 A matchup between two players in 2nd place, but Fowler had previously played well in this event - the only time that he has finished in the top-40 in five attempts was last year when he finished 23rd - whereas Stenson won here two years ago. Given that the Swede has also been in much better form recently, he looks much more likely to retain this leaderboard position. Justin Rose to beat Robert Streb -124 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] LOST by 3 Rose has dominated this matchup this year, finishing ahead of Streb in 10 of their last 11 common events, and with form figures of 6th-4th-3rd-4th-16th in his last five starts, Rose is a player to side with this week. Dustin Johnson to beat Brooks Koepka -138 @ Paddy Power WON by 6 Another one-sided matchup: Johnson has finished ahead of Koepka in seven of their last ten common strokeplay events and has two top-5 finishes on this course. Koepka is making his course debut and struggled yesterday to end the day outside the cut line. Koepka has been in good form recently, but he is still not at Johnson's level. Jim Furyk to beat Zach Johnson -111 @ Paddy Power TIED Back to Furyk given his play yesterday. He has been much more consistent than Johnson and I think that he'll get back into this tournament today. Round 3 play (2pts): Bill Haas to beat Ryan Palmer +100 @ 5Dimes WON by 1 Opposing Palmer after such a poor round yesterday. His first round 68 saw him in 11th place and with a chance of locking in a place in the Tour Championship; instead he made the cut in the mark and is now 15 shots off the pace with little chance of picking any significant amount of FedEx Cup points. Haas is projected to be 29th on the FedEx Cup rankings, so even a few points difference may be important by the end of the next event. I certainly wouldn't price him as an un underdog in this matchup. Round 4 play (4pts): Rory Sabbatini to beat Harris English +110 @ 5Dimes, Pinnacle and The Greek [also available @ Carib] LOST by 1 Good odds to back a player who ranks 3rd in Final Round Scoring Average against a player who ranks 100th and 2.5 shots higher. This is why English it has been six months since he recorded a top-10 finish and he has had just two top-25 finishes in strokplay events since that 10th place finish in the Vaspar Championship; Sabbatini has two top-10 and five top-25 finishes in his last nine starts. |
NOTES
* UPDATE: 18th September 2012 *
Following the dramatic reversal in the performance of my
18-hole tips over the last two months, there will be a change in my posting
policy:
There will now be posted up to a maximum of five plays per round,
but only for the PGA, European, Champions, LPGA and Nationwide Tours.
This does include co-sanctioned events by these Tours.
As before, these plays will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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