18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

1-6; -16.70pts 

Round 1 plays (2pts unless stated):

Pat Perez to beat Paul Casey +105 @ Pinnacle [also available @ The Greek and Carib] [4pts]  LOST by 1
All the standard angles point to a strong week from PP: he finished 2nd last year and has been 22nd or better in each of the last four years, plus he has finished in the top-30 in each of his three starts in 2015. Casey last played in this event 13 years ago, though he did finish 65th in the 2008 U.S. Open around the South Course and his record in 2015 is rather mixed: finishes of 30th and mc. It seems strange on this basis that Casey is the favourite in this matchup even before looking at a 'local player' angle.

Pat Perez to beat K.J. Choi -105 @ Bet365  LOST by 4
This is priced more line with expectations - Choi has a decent record in this event (top-30 finishes in each of his last four visits) and his 2015 form is much better than Casey's - but I'm still expecting a very strong week from PP. In his own words, "I've been around this course a long time and I worked here, I played this course a million times and it's just good to be home". That's good enough for me.

K.J Choi to beat David Toms -120 @ The Greek [also available @ 5Dimes, Pinnacle and Carib]  LOST by 1
However, I'll side with Choi in this matchup. Like Casey, Toms is not a regular here: he finished 60th in the 2008 U.S. Open and it has been over a decade since he played in this event. And like Casey, Toms' form has been indifferent this year. The odds on this matchup should be shorter, given those current and course histories and their respective h2h stats: since the start of 2013, Choi leads Toms 26-10-2 in rd1 and rd2.

Round 2 plays (2pts):

Keegan Bradley to beat Scott Piercy -120 @ Pinnacle  WON by 4
Inside the top-10 for greens in regulation in rd1, Bradley is playing well enough to cope with the tougher South Course today. He has three top-25 finishes in the last four years here, so he can clearly play well around today's course. With three missed cuts in five visits, it looks less certain for Piercy.

Luke Donald to beat Ian Poulter +100 @ Paddy Power  LOST by 4
Surprised to see myself backing Donald at the moment, but he did play better yesterday and this is more a play against Poulter in his year-opening event. He has tended to struggle on the South Course where he averages 72.75 in eight attempts; Donald's game is far more suited to that course and he averages over 1.5 shots lower in 24 attempts.

Round 3 play (4pts):

Nicholas Thompson to beat Chad Campbell +101 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]  LOST by 6
This is only the second time since 2012 that Campbell has entered the weekend inside the top-10. On that occasion - 2014 Crowne Plaza Invitational - he dropped from 4th after 36 holes to finish 30th and a similar result is expected here with such contention rust. Thompson has no such rustiness, has finished ahead of Campbell in six of their last seven common events and has hit his drives further and straighter and hit more greens in regulation than his opponent so far this week. That should make Thompson the favourite in this matchup.

Round 4 play (4pts):

Brian Harman to beat Tony Finau -105 @ Bet365  LOST by 2
Two players inside the top-20, but Harman has been far better from tee-to-green so far this week - he ranks ahead of Finau in driving distance, driving accuracy, greens in regulation and scrambling this week, whereas Finau's putter has been extremely hot. Around the South Course, he will need to play much better from tee-to-green today if he is secure his first top-20 finish of the year; Harman already has two this year and looks more capable of securing another one this week.