|
2-6; -13.84pts Round 1 play (2pts): Brian Harman to beat Will Wilcox +105 @ 5Dimes LOST by 2
It is seven weeks since Wilcox's 2014-15 season ended with the first Playoff event - he had to withdraw before the Deutsche Bank Championship started after injuring his knee - so there may be some rustiness after such a long, injury-induced layoff. That isn't a problem for Harman who reached the BMW Championship, but didn't progress to the Tour Championship. Neither player competed in this event last year, though Harman finished 7th the previous at CordeValle, so there is little to warrant Wilcox's large favouritism in this matchup. The value should be with Harman for a small play. Round 2 plays (2pts unless stated): John Senden to beat Will Wilcox +100 @ 5Dimes [4pts] LOST by 8 Daniel Summerhays to beat Russell Henley +100 @ 5Dimes [4pts] LOST by 5 George McNeill to beat Cameron Smith -124 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] LOST by 5 Russell Knox to beat Kyle Reifers -142 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] LOST by 3 Brendon De Jonge to beat Patrick Rodgers -120 @ The Greek [also available @ 5Dimes, Pinnacle and Carib] LOST by 6 Round 3 play (2pts): Daniel Berger to beat Tony Finau +104 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] TIED
With finishes of 12th, 2nd and 12th in his last three events, Berger is a player in form and he is already inside the top-20 after rd2. In that form and hitting more fairways and greens in regulation than Finau so far this week, he should be better placed to shoot a low score today. Round 4 plays (2pts): Daniel Berger to beat Tony Finau +104 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, SkyBet, The Greek and Carib] WON by 3
Going back to yesterday's play. Berger was not at his best, but was still a shot ahead of Finau playing the last ... Berger failed to get up-and-down from the edge of the green, whereas Finau did turn the play into a push. Berger should have finished ahead of Finau despite hitting only 11 greens in regulation; I'll back him to play better today and secure the win this time. Kevin Na to beat Brendan Steele -116 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, Paddy Power, The Greek and Carib] WON by 6
Opposing the leader who has 15 players within four shots of him, so the pressure will be particularly intense. He struggled to take advantage of the easy closing holes and that could be an indicator of today's play. He did win the 2011 Texas Open, but he was able to do so with 12 straight pars to close out the event and win by a single shot; he will need to be aggressive and hold putts in this low-scoring event. On the other occasion that he has held the lead after 54 holes - 2011 PGA Championship - there were only four players within four shots, but he shot 77 and finished 19th. Na is only one shot back and has clearly maintained the form that saw him secure three top-20 finishes in the four Playoff events. He looks to be just as likely to secure his second PGA Tour title. |
NOTES
* UPDATE: 18th September 2012 *
Following the dramatic reversal in the performance of my
18-hole tips over the last two months, there will be a change in my posting
policy:
There will now be posted up to a maximum of five plays per round,
but only for the PGA, European, Champions, LPGA and Nationwide Tours.
This does include co-sanctioned events by these Tours.
As before, these plays will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
|
