18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

4-2; +7.84pts 

No round 1 plays.

Round 2 plays (4pts):

Justin Thomas to beat Daniel Summerhays -138 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Pinnacle, The Greek and Carib]  WON by 8
Summerhays had a good U.S. Open two weeks ago, finishing 27th, but otherwise he has been in very poor form, missing four of his last six events and he looks set to misss the cut again today - he is in 142nd place and five shots off the cut line after rd1. He doesn't have the form to bounce back today, so Thomas should need only to keep in control of his game - as he did yesterday when finishing the day in 27th place.

Keegan Bradley to beat Patrick Reed -106 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]  LOST by 1
Reed hasn't played particularly well in his two previous visits to this course and he didn't play particularly well yesterday, ranking 90th in greens in regulation and 72nd in strokes gained tee to green. Bradley played better and has a much better record on this course - 3-for-3 in cuts made and he finished 4th last year - so he looks the more likely to improve on their current tied 48th position on the leaderboard.

Bryce Molder to beat Jim Herman -120 @ 5Dimes  WON by 8
In their ten common events in 2015, Herman has shot the lower pre-weekend score in just five of twenty rounds. Given that Molder finished in the top-20 here two years ago, I'd expect his dominance of this matchup to continue today.

Brendon Todd to beat J.B. Holmes -106 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]  TIED
Todd looks set for a very good week. He fully warrants his 6th place on the leaderboard - he was 2nd in driving accuracy and 5th in greens in regulation yesterday - plus he finished 4th here last year and has finished in the top-20 in two of his last three events. Holmes is without a top-25 finish in a strokeplay event since his win at the Houston Open three months ago and is already outside the top-25 this week. They look likely to maintain their respective leaderboard positions.

Round 3 plays (4pts):

Seung-Yul Noh to beat Chris Stroud +102 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]  WON by 2
Stroud has a good record on this course, but he can't match Noh in terms of form - he has finished 3rd and 20th in his last two starts. With Stroud struggling off the tee - he ranks 75th of 78 in dirving distance and 39th of 78 in driving accuracy, he looks less likely to construct a low score than Noh. As such, there should be value at these odds despite Stroud's course history.

Round 4 plays (4pts):

Kevin Kisner to beat Patrick Reed -103 @ Pinnatacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]  WON by 5
Reed may be a much more famous player and is 15th in the World Ranking, but he is without a top-10 finish in almost four months and Kisner has finished ahead of him in each of their last six common events. With finishes of 2nd-28th-2nd-38th-5th-8th-12th in his last seven starts, he looks likely to at least maintain, and more likely improve, his current 17th place position.

Jonathan Byrd to beat Andres Romero +102 @ Pinnacle  LOST by 3
Can't pass an opportunity to oppose a player who ranks 2nd-last in Final Round Scoring Average on the PGA Tour. Only Roger Sloan (74.75) ranks worse on a Sunday this season than Romero (74.17) and that is one reason why he has secured just one top-50 finish in his last ten starts. Now 182nd in the FedEx Cup Ranking, there is a lot of pressure on him to make the most of his current 12th place position, but that pressure is heightened because of his failings in this round. Byrd has closed each round within two shots of the lead and looks more likely than these odds suggest to a stronger contender than Romero today.