18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

1-5; -9.16pts 

Round 1 plays (2pts):

Ben Martin to beat Brendon Todd -110 @ 5Dimes  WON by 4
This is an unusual course for the PGA Tour and in stark contrast to Augusta National last week, so course form should be of particular relevance in rd1. Martin led this event after 36 holes, eventually finishing 3rd last year, so that puts him in a very good position against Todd who has finished mc-36th in his two previous appearances. Martin had a top-5 finish in his final event before The Masters so he has the form to repeat last year's performance here.

Robert Garrigus to beat Robert Streb -110 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 2
Two of the bigger-hitting players on Tour who wouldn't be expected to prosper on this course and Streb did miss the cut bu seven shots on his only previous visit. Garrigus, on the other hand, is 7-for-7 in cuts made at Harbour Town and is in much better form than Streb who hasn't achieved a top-50 finish since the Phoenix Open in the last week of January.

Michael Thompson to beat Lucas Glover -113 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]  LOST by 4
Opposing Glover who has missed four of his last five cuts on this course and four of his last five cuts this season. As such, it is little wonder that Thompson has a 13-2-2 h2h rd1 record against Glover over the last 12 months and that dominance should continue this week on a course where he has the better record.

Round 2 plays (2pts):

Sang-Moon Bae to beat Rory Sabbatini -135 @ Pinnacle and The Greek [also available @ 5Dimes and Carib]  LOST by 2
Only Morgan Hoffmann hit more greens in regulation that Bae in rd1 and that confirms how well he has played this season: he is already a winner on the 2014-15 Tour (Frys.com Open), ranking 12th in the FedEx Cup and 12th in the Money List; Sabbatini ranks 69th and 70th respectively. Currently in 3rd position after rd1, Bae won the Frys.com Open when leading after rd1 and when he was 2nd after rd1 of the Hyundai Tournament of Champions in January, he then took the lead in rd2. This shows that he is good from a leaderboard position and should be a strong challenger to the current leaders, Matt Every and Graeme McDowell.

Michael Thompson to beat Lucas Glover +102 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]  LOST by 4
A repeat of the 1st round matchup. Thompson hit his first shot of the day into water and was three shots behind Glover after the first hole, but he was then level by their 14th hole and then hit another wayward drive which cost him a penalty shot and he took seven on that hole and again dropped three shots back. So, apart from two wayward drives, he played better than Glover in rd1 so there should be optimism that this matchup can revert to type and Thompson shoot the lower score today.

Round 3 plays (2pts):

Danny Lee to beat Carl Pettersson +100 @ 5Dimes  TIED
Pettersson is a former winner here (2012), but his form has been very poor for some time: in 10 events this year, his best finish is 35th and he is not on course to improve on that this week. Nor is he playing well enough to do so - he ranks 66th of 76 in greens in regulation so far - so the value should be with Lee who is in much better form, leads Pettersson 6-3-1 h2h in those 10 events this year, and has hit more greens in regulation so far this week.

Jason Bohn to beat Joost Luiten +100 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 4
Again opposing an out-of-form player on Moving Day. Luiten is 3-for-3 in missed cuts over the last five weeks, while Bohn is 3-for-3 in cuts made over that period. And, in similar fashion to the first play, the selection's ball striking has been much better so far this week on this ball-striker's course: Luiten ranks 68th (of 76) in Strokes Gained - Tee to Green so far this week, so he has been heavily reliant on his putting to make the cut. That does not point to a low score over the weekend.

Round 4 plays (4pts):

Ricky Barnes to beat Ben Crane +100 @ 5Dimes  TIED
Two out-of-form players well down the leaderboard, but Barnes has still finished behind Crane just once since August last year and he is better form than Crane who has made just his third cut of the year this week. With two top-5 finishes in the last five years here, Barnes has the course record to certainly play much better this week and particularly today. I don't see why Crane is favoured in this matchup.