18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

4-3; +2.80pts  (system plays: 1-1-0)

Round 1 play (2pts):

J.J. Henry to beat Derek Fathauer -110 @ 5Dimes  WON by 10
Easy to oppose a player with just three top-50 finishes in 33 starts on the PGA Tour and predictably finished down in 68th place last week in his first start of 2015. Henry finished eight shots ahead of Fathauer last week and started the weekend inside the top-10 so is in decent form and, while he has never been in Sunday contention during his nine previous starts in this event, the last time that he opened on the Jack Nicklaus course (2011), he shot 64 and finished the day in 2nd place. Fathauer missed the cut in his previous start in this event.

Round 2 plays (2pts):

Scott Piercy to beat Scott Stallings +110 @ SkyBet  LOST by 4
Opposing a player who ranked 124th in greens in regulation in rd1 around the course with the lowest scoring average. Stallings did finish 4th in 2013. but has no other top-50 finishes in his four previous visits, so I will take these odds on a player who finished 2nd last week and has four top-20 finishes in his last five PGA Tour starts.

Andres Gonzales to beat John Peterson +138 @ BetVictor [available generally]  LOST by 5
Opposing Peterson who lies 2nd after rd1 and this is his highest post-rd1 position on the PGA Tour. In fact, he has finished rd1 inside the top-10 just four times previously on this Tour and each time has finished outside the top-20 and failed to break 70 in rd2 from this position. Gonzales finished 3rd in his last PGA Tour start and looks more likely to remain in contention this week.

Kevin Streelman to beat Tony Finau -120 @ Paddy Power  LOST by 4
With top-10 finishes in this event already and with two events already completed in 2015, Streelman is a player to side with this week. He didn't score particularly well yesterday, but he ranked 7th in greens in regulation for rd1 and inside the top-25 for driving distance and accuracy, so he looks likely to improve his score significantly today. Finau missed the cut last week and is already outside the cut line, so looks much less likely to shoot a low score today.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Donald tb Johnson +175 (W); Piercy tb Steele +100 (L)] 

Round 3 plays (2pts):

Spencer Levin to beat Brian Stuard +150 @ Coral [available generally]  WON by 1
Large enough odds to tempt me on tjhis matchup between two players in 60th place. Levin is 4-for-4 in cuts made on the 2014-15 PGA Tour season, whereas Stuard is 2-for-6 and one of those cuts made was a 71st place finish. On that basis, and with little between them this week in terms of scoring or stats, there should be value at these odds on Levin being the more likely to make today's cut.

Scott Piercy to beat Brendan Steele +110 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  WON by 1
Back to the well with Piercy after he disappointed yesterday. His form suggests that he can bounce back today and he does have a top-20 finish in this event; Steele is playing his first event of the season and has yet to finish in the top-50 in four previous attempts in this event.

Jason Dufner to beat Keegan Bradley +110 @ The Greek [available generally]  TIED
Dufner gave himself a chance of making the cut with a 65 in rd2 - 11 shots better than rd1, which was his first 18-holes of tournament golf since mid-November. That Tour rustiness addressed, he certainly looks more capable of shooting another good score today and beating a player who could only shoot 70 around the easiest course yesterday.

Round 4 plays (4pts unless stated):

Matt Kuchar to beat Bill Haas +100 @ Bet365  TIED
It was an ugly end to Kuchar's round yesterday, but that shouldn't make him the underdog against Haas today. Haas has won only two of five events when he started rd4 in the lead (1-for-3 when joint leader after 54 holes) and although none of the other three leaders have previously led a PGA Tour after 54 holes, there is a danger that they could all pull each other downwards in a nervy final grouping. Admittedly, Kuchar is only 1-for-4 when one shot back after 54 holes, but he won't be playing with the pressure facing Haas who is the bookies' favourite from this position.

Justin Thomas to beat Erik Compton -132 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] [2pts]  WON by 1
A matchup between two of the other leaders who are 0-for-0 when leading after rd3 on the PGA Tour. Two factors favour Thomas, though: he comes into this event in good form, having coped with the pressure of leading well after a rd2 61 last week and finishing 6th; and he is 1-for-1 when leading after 54 holes on the Web.com Tour, whereas Compton is 0-for-1, shooting 75 in rd4 of the 2011 Panama Championship.