18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

5-5; -1.20pts (system plays: 2-1-1) 

Round 1 plays (4pts):

Luke Donald to beat Victor Dubuisson +100 @ The Greek  LOST by 1
With three top-10 finishes here, Donald has shown that he can play well around this course and while his ball-striking is still not as good it was back then (prior to the swing changes), his short game is still good enough to ensure that he can score well around this course. He did, after all, finish 7th in the Honda Classic last month. Dubuisson missed the cut on his debut last year, plus he has played in only eight PGA Tour events, so I don't see him as a contender this week and not a favourite against Donald.

Bubba Watson to beat Jason Day +105 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes]  LOST by 4
A matchup between two players who should be in contention this week. Yes, it is difficult to defend the title in this event, but that shouldn't make Watson a clear underdog against Day. He does have the advantage of having previous been a Masters Champion - he has won in two of the last three years here - and he is in very good form, finishing 3rd last time out in the Cadillac Championship. Day finished 31st that week and was again well out of contention in his only start since that event (the Arnold Palmer Invitational).

Jose Maria Olazabal to beat Darren Clarke +120 @ Paddy Power  LOST by 5
Olazabal has made the last two cuts here and recorded a very impressive top-10 finish two weeks ago in the Trophee Hassan II. Clarke did make the cut last year (though he still finished behind Olazabal), but it was his first cut made here since 2006 and in terms of their h2h record at Augusta National, Olazabal holds a 8-1-0 record against Clarke since 2001. With Clarke in very poor form - his finishes in 2015 read mc-mc-mc-mc-67th-15th-mc - I don't see why he such a clear favourite against Olazabal.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Kirk tb Lowry -120 (W); Donald tb Grace -119 (T)] 

Round 2 plays (4pts):

Chris Kirk to beat Shane Lowry -133 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Pinnacle, The Greek and Carib]  LOST by 1
Kirk is well-placed to match his top-20 finish of last year after his opening 72, particularly after the form that he showed when finishing 8th in the Texas Open two weeks ago. Lowry struggled to a 75 yesterday, which is typical of his poor form over the last month, so it appears unlikely that he will climb the necessary 25 places and made the cut on his Masters debut.

Luke Donald to beat Victor Dubuisson +100 @ 5Dimes and The Greek [also available @ Pinnacle and Carib]  WON by 3
A repeat of the rd1 matchup which turned from a win to a loss with a two-shot swing on the last hole. Both are outside the cut mark, but I see Donald as the more likely to shoot the lower score today with the Masters Committee sure to set the greens to be harder and faster and more like a traditional Masters setup after yesterday's low scoring. He did hit more greens in regulation than Dubuisson yesterday and is clearly playing better than his opponent.

Jamie Donaldson to beat Victor Dubuisson +100 @ Paddy Power  WON by 4
Also opposing Dubuisson with Donaldson who finished in the top-15 last year. As in the previous matchup, Donaldson hit more greens in regulation than Dubuisson yesterday, already has a top-10 finish on the PGA Tour this year and looks more likely to play well today than a player whose best round at Augusta National is 74.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Els tb Cabrera +100 (L); Lowry tb Harrington +110 (W)] 

Round 3 plays (4pts):

Sergio Garcia to beat Tiger Woods +112 @ 5Dimes [available generally]  LOST by 3
Admittedly Garcia hasn't beaten Woods in any of the last 12 times that they have been paired together, but Woods is certainly an opposable player, particularly at these odds. Garcia has a famous history with Woods that would have certainly made it difficult for him to beat his American opponent in previous years, but if there was ever a time for Garcia to beat his playing partner for the first time since 2006, it is now.

Seung-Yul Noh to beat Geoff Ogilvy +103 @ 5Dimes [available generally]  WON by 1
Surprised to see Noh as an underdog in this matchup. He is 5-0-1 h2h over their last six common events, including 3-0-1 in 2015; in terms of rd3 alone, Noh is 9-2-0 h2h against Ogilvy since the start of last year; and Ogilvy hasn't shot a sub-70 round since January. 

Round 4 plays (4pts):

Jordan Spieth to beat Justin Rose +103 @ 5Dimes [available generally]  TIED
This is the fifth time already that these two have been paired together this year with Spieth holding the h2h advantage so far, but this is about their relative successives from their current positions. Spieth has never held a four-shot lead after any round until this week and is 0-for-4 when leading after 54 holes on the PGA Tour. However, he was in this position last week (a one-shot lead after 54 holes) and recovered well to make the playoff and he did move away from this field to secure a six-shot win in the Australian Open five months ago. There is some encouragement there for Spieth and, despite his poor play on the last two holes, it is worth remembering that he still hit more greens in regulation yesterday than Rose. As for Rose, he continues to struggle when near the top of the leaderboard. One of the best days that I have ever spent at a golf tournament was the 2002 British Masters at Woburn GC when there a head-to-head battle in the final pairing between Justin Rose and Ian Poulter. Rose's play was exceptional on that day to edge out Poulter by a single shot, but that is very much the exception rather than the rule: he is 1-for-21 on the other occasions that he has entered the final round in either 2nd or 3rd place. He didn't hit as many greens in regulation yesterday as Spieth (despite Spieth missing the last two greens) and he is without a top-10 finish this year. I just don't see Rose as the player who will put Spieth under pressure today.

Chris Kirk to beat Geoff Ogilvy -105 @ 5Dimes [available generally]  WON by 3
Opposing Ogilvy for the second day in a row. He is without a top-25 finish this year and looks unlikely to reach that mark from his current 36th position given that form. With Kirk holding a 8-0-1 h2h record against him in the last eight months (and 4-0-0 h2h record in 2015), this should be a one-sided matchup that is not reflected in the odds.

Rory McIlroy to beat Tiger Woods -120 @ Boyle Sports [available generally]  WON by 7
Unlike yesterday's Garcia-Woods matchup, McIlroy does have a dominant recent recordy when paired with Woods - he is 3-0-2 in the last five times that they have been paired together. McIlroy played well yesterday, despite a poor finish, and should have ht eupper hand against Woods who is certainly playing better than expected, but whose game and confidence is much more fragile.