18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

3-3; -1.72pts  (system plays: 1-2-1) 

Round 1 plays (4pts):

Russell Henley to beat Brooks Koepka -110 @ Paddy Power  LOST by 5
6th two years ago and five top-25 finishes in five of his last six starts, Henley is a player who play well this week even though he may not be a true contender for the win. Koepka did win the Phoenix Open, but in the four months since that win, he hasn't recorded a single top-15 finish. Making his debut on this course, he looks one to oppose this week in matchups.

Ryan Moore to beat Brendon Todd -114 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]  TIED
Todd is another to oppose this week. Apart from a 63 in the 3rd round at Hilton Head, He has not been at the top of his game recently, breaking 70 just six times in his last 30 rounds and even though he finished 8th last year, that was in the middle of a purple patch of form that yielded finishes of 1st, 5th, 8th, 17th, 5th and 4th. He is not playing as well this time around. Moore has been played better recently and he has a very good and extensive history on this course: he has finished in the top-40 in eight of the last nine years here, including two top-5 finishes.

Chris Kirk to beat George McNeill -119 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]  WON by 3
McNeill is also a regular in this event, playing seven of the last eight year, but over that time, he has secured just one top-40 finish and that was seven years ago. This is clearly a course that doesn't suit him and so he is certainly worth opposing with a player who won the Crowne Plaza Invitational two weeks ago and finished 4th in this event last year.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Cink tb Huh -120 (T); Reed tb Koepka -110 (L)]

Round 2 plays (4pts):

Bill Haas to beat Tiger Woods -125 @ Paddy Power  LOST by 1
Okay, Tiger was 3-under-par for his second nine yesterday, but the course was as easy as it has played in years and he did go out in 40. Only Charles Howell hit fewer fairways yesterday and less than ten players hit fewer greens in regulation than Tiger yesterday. Compare that to Haas who ranked 1st in driving accuracy and 8th in greens in regulation and it is clear which player has control of his ball. With finishes of 4th and 8th in the last two years here, this course clearly suits Haas' game. Haas is a 9-0-0 against Tiger since the start of 2014 and I fully expect that perfect matchup run to continue to double digits this week.

Vijay Singh to beat Hudson Swafford -120 @ 5Dimes  WON by 3
Singh has continued to play full-time on the PGA Tour despite being eligible for the Champions Tour and, while not being particularly likely to win an event, he has missed only two cuts in 11 starts since February and recorded two top-15 finishes. Consistency at that level of making cuts has resulted in a dominant h2h record against Swafford: he leads him 5-2-1 h2h since February and that is particularly strong in the first two rounds where he is 11-3-2 h2h against Swafford. On that basis, I'd make Singh a stronger favourite and so there looks to be value in these odds.

Billy Horschel to beat Patrick Reed -120 @ Paddy Power  TIED
Opposing Reed who played yesterday as though the off-course issues - his wife's cousin died from cancer two weeks ago - were affecting his game/focus. It was the reason why he pulled out of two European Tour events that he had committed to last month, but he has still kept playing on the PGA Tour - last week's absence from the Byron Nelson Championship was his first week away from the Tour after seven consecutive events. Yesterday, he ranked 114th (of 120) in driving accuracy and 108th in greens in regulation on his course debut, so it looks unlikely for several reasons that he will rebound significantly today. Horschel is a consistent enough player to side with in this matchup.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Horschel tb Koepka +100 (W); Thomas tb Koepka -120 (L)]

Round 3 play (4pts):

Steve Stricker to beat Tiger Woods +100 @ The Greek [also available @ 5Dimes, Pinnacle and Carib]  WON by 9
From tee to green, Tiger didn't play much better on Friday and of the 71 players that made it to the weekend, he is ranked last in driving accuracy, greens in regulation and Shots Gained Tee to Green. He putted extremely well yesterday - just 24 putts in his round - to make the cut on the mark, but it is clear that this is about his maximum level until he improves his ball-striking. That makes him opposable at these odds and, while Stricker may not be as competitive as he was once, he has a very good record at Muirfield Village, finishing 6th last year and winning in 2011, so a competitive weekend is expected of him.

Round 4 play (4pts):

Andy Sullivan to beat David Lingmerth -108 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]  LOST by 4
This is only the 5th time that Lingmerth has started the final round of a PGA Tour event inside the top-10. In his first attempt, he did well - 1st after 54 holes of the 2013 Players Championship, he shot 72 to finish 2nd - but thereafter he has been poor, shooting 75-73-73 to fall at least 10 shots on each occasion. He showed that frailty at the start of yesterday's round when leading the tournament, but closed with two birdies in four holes to finish 2nd. Without a top-30 finish since mid-March, he looks opposable in this position. Sullivan has a very different record from this position, albeit on the European Tour. He has won twice already this year: the South African Open from 5th place at the start of the final round and the Joburg Open from 6th place. He is currently in 5th place and in the five times that he has started the final round inside the top-10 in the last year, he has shot 67-67-67-70-66 in the final round. He had a poor end to his round after he had taken a one-shot lead, but he has the history to suggest that he will be back in contention again today.