18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

3-5; -9.88pts 

Round 1 plays (4pts):

Jason Kokrak to beat Jason Dufner +100 @ 5Dimes  WON by 3
Injuries and divorce have resulted in a difficult couple of season for Dufner. However a missed cut a 35th place finish in a limited-field event does not suggest that this season will be begin any better. Kokrak is in better form - 12th last week - and has a better history on this course - he finished 16th last year whereas Dufner hasn't played since 2009 - so Kokrak should be the favourite in this matchup.

Brian Harman to beat Kevin Streelman -106 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes and The Greek]  LOST by 1
With a 7th place finish, Harman achieved something last time out that Streelman has achieved only once in the last 12 months: a top-10 finish. On that occasion, it was a back-door top-10 finish as he rose from 23rd to 9th on the final day. As with Dufner, Streelman has avoided this event since 2009, so that is noteworthy and makes him a player to oppose this week.

Alex Cejka to beat Brendon De Jonge +100 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 2
Opposing another player who has avoided this event for many years. In De Jonge's case, the last time that he played here was in 2010. Cejka finished alongside Kokrak in 16th place last year, though he had been 3rd at the start of the final round and he comes into the event in very good form with finishes of 2nd and 17th in his last two PGA Tour events.

Round 2 plays (4pts):

Tyrone Van Aswegen to beat Nachi Elvira -110 @ 5Dimes  WON by 2
A 3rd place finish in the Frys.com Open (and two further cuts made) shows that the South African is in good form; missing each of his last five cuts on the European Tour suggests that this is a level too far for Elvira who has otherwise played well on the European Challenge Tour.

John Huh to beat Thomas Aiken -120 @ 5Dimes  WON by 2
Both players are four shots off the cut line after poor opening rounds, but there is one key reason why Huh is the more likely to keep fully focussed on making the cut today: he won this event in 2012. He also finished inside the top-30 in both other appearances on this course, whereas Aiken missed the cut, so yesterday was a surprise, but Huh should fare better today.

Chris Stroud to beat Roberto Castro -116 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]  LOST by 3
Stroud is another who surprisingly finished rd1 well down the leaderboard: he has finished 4th, 5th, 3rd, 23rd in the last four years here and he has finished in the top-10 in two of his last three events. Castro missed the cut in his only previous visit and is only just inside the cut line this time. He looks far less likely to shoot a good score today.

Chez Reavie to beat Jon Rahm -120 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 1
Rahm was confirmed as the #1 Amateur in the World this summer when he was awarded the Mark H. McCormack Medal in August. However good a future the Arizona State senior has in the game though, I doubt that he is currently at the level of Reavie, an alumnus of Arizona State, who more than met his Major Medical Extension requirements last seasons: he finished #1 in the Web.com Tour Finals money list. Reavie has followed up that success with 2-for-2 in cuts made this season, including a top-20 finish in the Frys.com Open.

No round 3 plays.

Round 4 play (4pts):

Derek Fathauer to beat Harold Varner -105 @ Carib  LOST by 1
I wouldn't normally back the leader after 54 holes if they hadn't won on the PGA Tour previously, but I think that he will fare better than Varner today. Fathauer is a winner on the Web.com Tour when he, as today, started the final round of the tournament with a one-shot lead. That was the 2014 Web.com Tour Championship and so there was a much better field than usual. He also finished in 7th place in the Barracuda Championship in August, so he has experience of being in contention on the PGA Tour; Varner's best finish on this Tour is 39th and on the one other occasion that he started the final round on the PGA Tour inside the top-10 (Frys.com Open three weeks ago), he shot 79 to finish 48th. Finally, in their 25 common events, Varner has shot the lower final round score just once.