18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

3-3; +4.78pts 

Round 1 plays (2pts unless stated):

Rafa Cabrera-Bello to beat Steven Bowditch +120 @ Carib [also available @ 5Dimes, Pinnacle and The Greek] [4pts]  WON by 1
Very good odds to back the Spaniard in this matchup. He has been in very good form this summer with five consecutive top-15 finishes before finishing 41st in the Scottish Open and 40th in the Open Championship to show that he can compete on links courses. He has also made the cut in each of the last two PGA Championships, whereas Bowditch missed the cut on his debut last year. Bowditch did win the Byron Nelson Championship in May, but he has no other top-10 finishes in his 24 starts in 2015 and I see little to suggest that it will be any different at Whistling Straits.

Sergio Garcia to beat Louis Oosthuizen -109 @ Pinnacle  TIED
On a course like Whistling Straits, driving is very important, and on a Pete Dye course, the ability to control approach shots is just as important. Garcia excels in both these facets of the game and when he finished 6th last month at St Andrews, it was his 9th top-10 finish in the Open Championship. He can clearly play on links courses, so he looks a player to side with for 54 holes this week. I'm not doubting Oosthuizen's credentials, but Garcia holds a 11-5-0 h2h record over rds 1 and 2 in 2015 against the South African (and a losing h2h record again him in rds 3 and 4) and this course suits Garcia more than most courses.

Sergio Garcia to beat Hideki Matsuyama -105 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 2
A similar story in this matchup. Matsuyama has become a very consistent top-20 finisher and has settled to the courses on the PGA Tour very well, but this is a very different type of course and I see Garcia as much more likely to really contend this week.

Jim Furyk to beat Brooks Koepka -135 @ 5Dimes  TIED
The experience and careful ball control of Furyk or the power of Koepka? There's no denying Koepka's form and two of his current run of six top-25 finishes have been Majors, but only one of those (the St Jude Classic two months ago) was a top-5 finish, whereas Furyk has finished in the top-5 in his last two starts, in the last two PGA Championships and was around the top-5 in 2010 for a lot of the week until a poor 4th round.

Round 2 plays (2pts):

Danny Willett to beat David Lingmerth +120 @ SkyBet  TIED
Lingmerth played well yesterday to end the day in 2nd place, but this is only his 4th Major Championship start and his record in his previous three Majors does not suggest that he will stay in this position. His finishes have been 17th-mc-74th and in the one time that he has been inside the top-20 before weekend, he then dropped lower down the leaderboard with every subsequent round to finish 74th. He is in good form, but the pressure is very different in a Major. Willett is a long way back in 71st place, but he was 4-over-par on the front nine and recovered well to be 2-under-par on the back nine, so he has momentum as well as the form to shoot a good round today - he last three finishes have been 6th (Open Championship) - 1st (European Masters) - 17th (Bridgestone Invitational).

Sergio Garcia to beat Louis Oosthuzen +105 @ SkyBet [also available @ [also available @ 5Dimes, Pinnacle, The Greek and Carib]  TIED
A repeat of the rd1 matchup. Both players had poor finishes to their round and should have finished the day higher up the leaderboard, but they are still in the top-40 and within six shots of the lead. Garcia has a stronger record of getting back into contention (as evidence by his 11-5-0 h2h pre-weekend record against Oosthuizen) so I'll back him in this matchup for another day.

Rafa Cabrera-Bello to beat Steven Bowditch +110 @ The Greek [also available @ 5Dimes, Pinnacle and Carib]  TIED
Another repeat of a rd1 matchup. Cabrera-Bello won that matchup and he is now inside the cut line whereas Bowditch is outside it. With the angles outlined for the rd1 play still valid for today's play, there is once again odds at plus-odds.

No round 3 plays.

Round 4 plays (4pts unless stated):

Henrik Stenson to beat Hideki Matsuyama +105 @ 5Dimes and Pinnacle [also available @ The Greek and Carib]  WON by 3
I'll back Stenson as an underdog. He has 3rd places finishes in the last two PGA Championship, finished 6th in the Bridgestone Invitational and hit 15 of 18 greens in regulation in each of the last two rounds. He can't win from this position, but that was due to an opening 76. Take out that round and he is playing far better than his Japanese opponent who, in contrast to Stenson, has slipped down the leaderboard after a strong start to the week.

Russell Henley to beat Tony Finau +102 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]  WON by 2
A similar story in this matchup in terms of quality of play: Henley has hit more greens in regulation than Finau in each of the last two rounds and that is not surprising given that Finau found himself inside the top-5 by the end of the 2nd round. It appears to be an identical week to Finau's only previous Major Championship start: in the U.S. Open in June, he jumped into the top-5 in his second round, fell to 9th after rd3 (he fell to 6th yesterday) and then fell to 14th in rd4. Henley has far more experience of Major Championships (two top-25 finishes in three of this year's events) and, eight shots off the pace, he should face less pressure than Finau who is within five shots of Jason Day.

Marcel Siem to beat Hiroshi Iwata +101 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]  LOST by 3
It was a good effort to shoot 70 yesterday after he tied the lowest-ever round in a Major Championship in rd2 as there is always a let-down after such a round. Even if it was limited yesterday, the effect can still carry over to the following round as well. And it is not as though Iwata played particularly well when shooting 63 - hit only 10 greens in regulation, but he took only 22 putts in his round, including a 3-putt on the 2nd hole. Siem has hit more greens in regulation than Iwata in every round and should score better, and not just play better, than his opponent today.

Francesco Molinari to beat Victor Dubuisson -110 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] [2pts]  LOST by 8
A smaller play in this matchup which Molinari dominates - he has finished ahead of the Frenchman in six of their last seven common events. He has also hit 41 greens in regulation this week compared to 34 by Dubuisson so that form has clearly continued into this wek even though they are both tied on 3-under-par.