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4-5; -8.10pts No round 1 plays. Round 2 plays (2pts): Retief Goosen to beat Michael Thompson -160 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Pinnacle and The Greek] LOST by 5
An unusual matchup between the player who tops the leaderboard and the player in last place. Thompson also warrants that last place position as he ranked last in greens in regulation yesterday. Already nine shots off the cut line, I can't see him finding the motivation or the game to challenge Goosen in today's round. Russell Knox to beat Sean O'Hair -138 @ Paddy Power WON by 6
Both tied in 43rd place, but Knox played much better than his opponent yesterday, ranking 8th in greens in regulation, whereas O'Hair was 73rd. Given that O'Hair has missed four of his last five cuts, he is another player who is not expected to significantly improve his game today so Knox, who has two top-10 finishes in his last four starts, warrants favouritism in this matchup. Jeff Overton to beat Hudson Swafford -120 @ 5Dimes LOST by 1
A similar story in this matchup. Overton played well in rd1, finishing the day in 6th place and with only Goosen hitting more greens in regulation; Swafford finished the day in 27th place and ranked 44th in greens in regulation. Without a top-25 finish in his last eight starts, he is another who appears unlikely to play significantly better today. Vijay Singh to beat K.J. Choi -125 @ 5Dimes LOST by 2
Singh ranked inside the top-10 for greens in regulation yesterday and, but for better play around the green, would have finished the day much higher than 43rd place. He has the form to do so today - he has finished inside the top-20 in two of his last five starts, whereas Choi has just one top-20 finish in the last 13 months. Pat Perez to beat Patrick Rodgers -120 @ Paddy Power WON by 5
Perez is inside the top-20 after rd1 and that has become a familiar position for PP recently: since the Tour left Florida in March, he had made the cut in every event and finished 26th or better in 8 out of the 10 events. Over that period, Perez holds a 6-0-1 h2h score over Rodgers over both 72 holes and in rd2 alone. In these respective forms, Perez should be a clear favourite for today's round. No round 3 plays. Round 4 plays (4pts unless stated): Carl Pettersson to beat David Lingmerth +150 @ Ladbrokes [available generally] LOST by 1
Good odds to back Pettersson who is very good in the final round when inside the top-10: in the last 15 times that he has been in that position, he has shot a sub-par round 14 times and in the one time that he shot a level-par round, it was a Major - the 2012 PGA Championship. Together with hitting more greens in regulation than Lingmerth, he doesn't warrant these odds. John Huh to beat Tiger Woods +175 @ Coral [available generally] LOST by 2
Opposing Tiger after his troubles yesterday. He certainly showed in rd1 and rd2 that he is capable of shooting a low score, but it is highly dependent on his driving and there has only been one round in which he has driven well. Now nine shots back, motivation may be a factor after such a poor round and that is confirmed by the fact that it was back in 2013 when he last broke 70 when 8+ shot behind the leader at the start of the final round. Huh has done that twice in the last month alone - 66 in rd4 of the Greenbrier Classic; 68 in the John Deere Classic. Jason Bohn to beat Kevin Chappell -125 @ Paddy Power [also available @ SkyBet] [2pts] WON by 6
Chappell is 0-for-1 when leading after 54 holes on the PGA Tour (2011 Children's Miracle Network Classic) and 0-for-2 when leading after 54 holes on the Web.com Tour (2010 Wayne Gretzky Classic; 2010 Cox Classic), so he is an easy player to oppose in this situation. Bohn has the form - top-15 finishes in his last two starts - to keep him in contention today. Carl Pettersson to beat Charles Howell -111 @ Paddy Power [also available @ SkyBet] [2pts] WON by 3
Backing Pettersson again and with good reason to oppose Howell. This is the first time since 2013 that Howell starts the final round inside the top-5 and he is without a top-30 finish in his last ten starts, so contention rust should be an issue. |
NOTES
* UPDATE: 18th September 2012 *
Following the dramatic reversal in the performance of my
18-hole tips over the last two months, there will be a change in my posting
policy:
There will now be posted up to a maximum of five plays per round,
but only for the PGA, European, Champions, LPGA and Nationwide Tours.
This does include co-sanctioned events by these Tours.
As before, these plays will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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