18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

4-3; +3.72pts 

Round 1 plays (4pts):

Fredrik Jacobson to beat Kyle Stanley +102 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]  LOST by 3
Stanley struggled for starts last season with only Past Champion status and now has full status with three top-20 finishes in the Web.com Tour Finals. So he does have form, but he got married only last week and he has missed the cuts in each of the last two years here, so I doubt that he will retain that form this week. Jacobson finished 9th here last time out and finished 32nd last week in his first event since May - it was not due to injury, but caring for his son who had open-heart surgery and is now fine. He now has Major Medical Extension status this season and has 11 starts in which to earn $326.211 or 190.19 FedEX Cup Points to retain his status. Last week's performance puts him on course to meet that target and focus will not be an issue for the Swede with this target.

Adam Hadwin to beat Ollie Schiederjans -105 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 2
Very different profiles for these two players. Hadwin reached last season's Playoffs and finished in the top-10 here last year in his rookie season; Schniederjans did not reach the Playoffs, is making his debut on this course and is only here on a sponsor's exemption. Hadwin is also 5-1-0 h2h against Schniederjans in 2015, including finishing ahead of him last week.

Round 2 plays (4pts):

Ryan Palmer to beat Russell Henley +100 @ SkyBet  TIED
Opposing Henley who is without a top-40 finish in over two months, missed the cut in only previous appearance in this event and is down in 39th place after rd1. Palmer is inside the top-5 and just one shot off the lead and has previously finished inside the top-10 in this event.

Camilo Villegas to beat Jonathan Byrd -120 @ 5Dimes WON by 5
Big difference between these two. Villegas finished 30th and 33rd in the first two Playoff events, but didn't progress to the third; Byrd headed to the Web.com Tour Finals for the third consecutive year to regain his Tour Card and for the third consecutive year, he failed to do so. He is now playing on Category 33 - Past Champion status which means he will play a reduced number of PGA Tour events this season. Byrd did win this event in 2010, but he is far from being that player again and so Villegas should prevail over the remaining 54 holes.

Tony Finau to beat Ryo Ishikawa -144 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]  WON by 1
Ishikawa is 5th after rd1 and only one shot off the lead, but it was solely because of a hot short game - he ranked outside the top-100 in greens in regulation yesterday so his ball-striking is not at the level needed to stay inside the top-5. Finau has proven himself to be a very good player after an impressive rookie season and, despite being five shots off the pace, can easily get back into this event and match his 7th place finish here last year.

Fredrik Jacobson to beat Kyle Stanley +113 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]  WON by 1
It was a strange round from Jacobson yesterday. Noted for being inconsistent from tee-to-green, he has one of the best short games on Tour. However, he was very strong from tee-to-green yesterday, but was poor around and on the green. If his ball control is as good today as yesterday, he should be backed to shoot a much lower score today and beat a player ranked over 240 places lower in the World Rankings.

Ryan Moore to beat Russell Henley -120 @ Paddy Power  LOST by 2
Easy to back a player who won here in 2012, has three top-10 finishes in his last five appearances at Summerlin and finished in the top-10 last week. He ranked 7th in greens in regulation yesterday and only a cold putter (127th in Strokes Gained Putting) prevented him from shooting a low score. That should be remedied today.

Round 3 play (4pts):

Michael Thompson to beat Davis Love +105 @ 5Dimes  WON by 3
Thompson looks good value to beat the Ryder Cup captain. Admittedly, Love won the Wyndham Championship in August, but in doing so he became the third-oldest winner on the PGA Tour and he hasn't secured a top-40 finish since. Thompson was leading after day 1 and fell back yesterday, but he is very capable of bouncing back today. That was certainly the case when he last led after rd1: in the 2014 McGladrey Classic, he dropped from 1st to 21st in rd2, but then followed that with a 67 in rd3.

No round 4 plays.