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6-2; +8.29pts (system plays: 0-1-1) Round 1 plays (2pts): Steven Bowditch to beat Derek Fathauer -125 @ 5Dimes LOST by 2
This is the first Tour event for two months for Fathauer and on a course on which he is 1-for-1 in missed cuts. That is in stark contrast to Bowditch who played in events on the Australasian Tour in November and December, finished 22nd last week and has made his last three cuts in this event. That should be a significant advantage at this stage of the season. David Hearn to beat Paul Casey -111 @ Bet365 LOST by 5
Casey is another making his year debut after a prolonged break - his last event was in the CIMB Classic, which finished on 2nd November 2014 - and a 1-for-1 record in missed cuts on this course. The similarities continue with the first matchup in that the selection has made his last three cuts in this event, but then the similarities end: Hearn hasn't played since the OHL Classic in mid-November. However, he did close out 2014 in very good form, finishing 7th, 14th and 16th in his last three starts so at least the confidence should carry over to this event. Round 2 plays (2pts): Francesco Molinari to beat Paul Casey +138 @ SkyBet WON by 2
It has been almost four years since Casey last led a Tour event after rd1 (2011 Transitions Championship) and on that occasion he finished 37th. In fact, he is 0-for-7 since 2006 and that isn't just in terms of winning the event from a rd1 leading position, but he is also 0-for-7 over that period in terms of retaining his lead into rd2 as he failed to break 70 in any of those seven occasions. Molinari ranked in the top-5 for both driving accuracy and greens in regulation yesterday, so he looks very capable of improving on his current 23rd place postion. Scott Piercy to beat Camilo Villegas +100 @ Bet365 WON by 3
Opposing Villegas who is 3rd after rd1, but has shown little indication that he can repeat yesterday's scoring. He finished ahead of only two players last week and ranked outside the top-100 in both driving distance and driving accuracy, so needs excellent recovery skills to post his rd1 score. Such a task will be much easier for Piercy who rannked 2nd in greens in regulation yesterday and does have three top-25 finishes in his last five visits to Waialae GC (Villegas finished finished 46th-mc). Rory Sabbatini to beat Camilo Villegas +100 @ Paddy Power WON by 3
A regular here since 1999 with a couple of 2nd place finishes, Sabbatini looks to be capable of building on his current 5th place position. As such, he looks a good player with which to oppose Villegas at underdog odds. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Bae tb Casey +100 (T); English tb Simpson +110 (L)] Round 3 plays (2pts): Daniel Summerhays to beat Paul Casey +113 @ Pinnacle [also availale @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] WON by 2
Opposing Casey again after he struggled yesterday, particularly on the back-nine. Summerhays has made his 11th consecutive cut on the PGA Tour and is now in the top-10 in this category on the PGA Tour, so he has been playing consistently well and should be able to take advantage of any troubles for Casey today. Hyung-Sung Kim to beat Nick Taylor +100 @ Paddy Power WON by 6
A basement matchup, but happy to take plus-odds against Taylor who was a surprise winner of the Sanderson Farms Championship and struggled to finish 29th of 34 last week. Kim had three top-20 finishes on the Japan Tour before the Christmas break, so he looks more than capable of beating Taylor. Gary Woodland to beat Charles Howell +100 @ Bet365 WON by 2
Howell has an excellent record on this course, but he has not looked like a course specialist so far this week. Woodland has a poor record on this course, but he has hit his drives further and straighter and hit more greens in regulation so far this week, so without any evidence of a course advantage to Howell, Woodland should always be the favourite in this matchup. Round 4 play (2pts): Harris English to beat Gary Woodland -106 @ Pinnacle [also availale @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] TIED
This is clearly a course that suits English - he has finished 9th and 4th in the last two years here - and he recorded his 11th consecutive sub-70 score around Waialae yesterday. Given that he ranks 5th in 'Strokes Gained - Tee to Green' so far this week, he is clearly playing very well. It looks good value to side with him against a player who made his first cut in three attempts at Waialae this week. He has hit only 50% of fairways this week and if he continues at this level, there is a far greater chance of Woodland shooting an over-par round today than English. |
NOTES
* UPDATE: 18th September 2012 *
Following the dramatic reversal in the performance of my
18-hole tips over the last two months, there will be a change in my posting
policy:
There will now be posted up to a maximum of five plays per round,
but only for the PGA, European, Champions, LPGA and Nationwide Tours.
This does include co-sanctioned events by these Tours.
As before, these plays will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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