1-5; -18.26pts (system plays: 2-0-0) No round 1 plays. Round 2 plays (4pts): Phil Mickelson to beat Brooks Koepka -138 @ Paddy Power LOST by 2 Jason Bohn to beat Tommy Gainey -143 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] WON by 3 Shawn Stefani to beat Jason Kokrak -113 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] LOST by 1 [unofficial rd2 system plays: McNeill tb McGirt -123 (W); Horschel tb Palmer +100 (W)] Round 3 play (4pts); Chad Collins to beat Ben Crane +150 @ SkyBet [available generally] LOST by 1 Short odds on Crane, presumably as he is the defending champion, but he has not played like one this week - of the 76 players who have made the cut, he ranks last in greens in regulation. To be fair, he was not playing particularly well heading into this event with missed cuts in over half of his 14 starts this year and his only top-30 finish coming in the Tournament of Champions when he finished 29th of 34. Ranked 171st in Round 3 Scoring Average on the PGA Tour, there appears to be little in Crane's favour today apart from the win last year, so these do look good odds to oppose him with Collins. Round 4 plays (4pts): Scott Brown to beat Camilo Villegas -106 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] LOST by 2 With an impressive record on this course - four top-15 finishes in the last five years - Villegas has found a way to score well on this course even when not playing well - he has missed the cut in five of his last six events and finshed 40th in the other and, in terms of this week, he ranks 56th (of 75) in Strokes Gained Tee to Green this week and 1st in Strokes Gained Putting. Now that he is inside the top-10 of a final round, the strains on his ball-striking will be more acute and so good putting should not be able to save him in this round, This is what happened in the only previous time that he had started the final round inside the top-10 this year: he shot 74 in the final round of the Sony Open to drop from 8th to 44th. Brown has played far better this week and should far better than Villegas today. Mark Wilson to beat Ben Crane +120 @ Paddy Power LOST by 1o Sometimes you need to handicap just one player in a matchup to be successful; that was not the case yesterday as Crane expectedly struggled to a 4-over-par round, but Collins fared one worse. Wilson should make a more dependable opponent to Crane. He recovered well from dropping four shots in his opening three holes yesterday, wheres Crane fell away dramatically towards the end of the round so Wilson would have felt much better after his round. He ranks 12th in greens in regulation so far this week, whereas Crane has struggled to hit greens in regulation this week. All this points to value with Wilson, particularly at these 'ties push' odds. |
NOTES
* UPDATE: 18th September 2012 *
Following the dramatic reversal in the performance of my
18-hole tips over the last two months, there will be a change in my posting
policy:
There will now be posted up to a maximum of five plays per round,
but only for the PGA, European, Champions, LPGA and Nationwide Tours.
This does include co-sanctioned events by these Tours.
As before, these plays will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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