18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

4-4; +1.04pts  (system plays: 1-1-0)

Round 1 plays (2pts):

Matt Kuchar to beat Jimmy Walker -120 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 1
Both players' form has dipped a little since their very strong opening events in January, so the advantage falls to Kuchar in terms of course form despite Walker living in Texas since his university days. Kuchar does have a runners-up finish in this event (2001) when the event was played at LaCantera, but has played in each of the last three years since it moved to TPC San Antonio and he has finished ahead of Walker every time. Last year, he spurned another very good opportunity to win and eventually finished 4th, but he does look a very good player to side with in matchups.

Charles Howell to beat Nick Watney -120 @ Paddy Power  WON by 2
Watney is making his debut at TPC San Antonio this week, so there is a clear advantage to Howell who finished in the top-10 finish last time he was here. Howell is also in good form and is 8-for-8 in cuts made in 2015 with a couple of top-10 finishes, so he holds an advantage by that mark also. One of those top-10 finishes was in the Valspar Championship which had strong winds in rd2 and rd3, so he shouldn't struggle too much with the winds predicted for today's round.

Martin Flores to beat Kevin Chappell -110 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 10
Wind was also a factor in all four days of the Honda Classic and the Puerto Rico Open and Flores finished in the top-20 in both those events, so he similarly should play relatively well in today's conditions. That should be a struggle for Chappell who has missed his last three cuts, shooting 80-75-71-73-74-74 over that period, and who shot 74-79 to miss the cut by some margin last year. Flores has finished 24th-10th-16th in the last three years here. 

Round 2 plays (2pts):

Ryan Palmer to beat Charley Hoffman +100 @ SkyBet  LOST by 3
Hoffman does have a very good record in this event, but this is only the third time that he has led a PGA Tour event after rd1 - he then shot 73 in rd2 of the 2013 Travelers Championship and finished 7th; he then shot 76 in rd2 of the 2014 Houston Open and finished 37th. The draw looks to have been, surprisingly, extremely favourable for yesterday's afternoon starters, but I don't see Hoffman being able to hold onto the lead for another round. Palmer is in much better form and, sitting in 4th place, looks more likely to shoot a low score in rd2.

John Senden to beat Chesson Hadley -118 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]  LOST by 4
Senden has long been one of my 'go-to' players in rd2 given his record in this round. In each of the last five seasons, his Rd2 Scoring Average has been lower than Rd1 Scoring Average on the PGA Tour and in three of those five seasons, the difference has been greater than a whole shot. Just as 12 month ago, Hadley is inside the top-10 after rd1. On that occasion, he then shot 71-71-80 to finish 56th and looks an opposable player in this position.

Billy Horschel tb Chris Kirk -120 @ Paddy Power  WON by 1
Kirk has struggled this year with his only top-25 finish occuring in the Hyundai Tournament of Champions with its 34-player field. He has started well though - this is the 4th time this year that he has finished rd1 in the top-15 - but he ranks 147th in Rd2 Scoring Average on the PGA Tour this year (vs 44th for Rd1 Scoring Average), so he looks likely to fall back today. Horschel does have a top-3 finish on this course and is well-placed to repeat that feat after rd1.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Woodland tb Kirk -102 (L); Guthrie tb Blair +100 (W)]

Round 3 play (2pts):

William McGirt to beat Tony Finau +100 @ 5Dimes  WON by 2
Strong reasons to back McGirt even despite these favourable odds. #1 He has been in much better form than Finau recently - since the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am, he missed just one cut and secured three top-25 finishes, whereas Finau has made just one cut and that was a finish in 56th place. #2 He has a decent record on this course with three top-40 finishes in four attempts, whereas Finau is making his course debut. #3 He is playing much better than his current leaderboard position - he ranks 2nd in greens in regulation so far this week - so is playing well enough to make a significant move today.

Round 4 play (4pts):

Kevin Na to beat Zach Johnson +100 @ Paddy Power  WON by 1
With top-10 finishes in his last three starts and now inside the top-10 after 54 holes, Na is certainly a player in form and playing a great deal of confidence. Being eight shots off the lead, he does not have the pressure of being in contention early in the round, but if he does get a fast start, he is playing well enough to put some pressure on Walker. Johnson's form recently has not been as impressive - Na leads him 3-1-1 h2h in 2015 - and the last time that he was in a similar position (the Phoenix Open eight weeks ago), he shot 71 in rd4 to drop from 2nd to 10th. On form, Na should be the favourite in this matchup.