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3-1; +7.28pts Round 1 plays (4pts): Keegan Bradley to beat Kevin Streelman +100 @ SkyBet WON by 5
Streelman may be the defending champion after his 'come-from-behind' victory last year - he was 61st after rd1 - but this year will be very different as a result - there will be a lot more pressure on him. When he won his only previous event on the PGA Tour - the 2013 Tampa Bay Championship - he shot 73 in the opening round as defending champion the following year to lie 70th (he finished 38th). With a h2h record that reads 6-1-0 in Bradley's favour since February, this is a straightforward play. Keegan Bradley to beat Kevin Na -110 @ 5Dimes WON by 9
Na has been in very good form recently, but so has Bradley - they are very evenly matched in terms of the h2h stats: 4-4-2 since the start of the year. But, whereas Bradley is a regular here and is 4-for-4 in cuts made, Na has avoided this event since 2012 and that is no surprise as his last three finishes here have been: mc-wd-mc. He looks opposable on this course. Brandt Snedeker to beat Billy Horschel -118 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] LOST by 1Horschel is another player who has skipped this event in recent years, playing this year for the first time since 2012. Snedeker finished 11th here last year and has dominated this matchup in 2015: he leads him 8-1-1 in their last ten common events, so there should be value at these odds. Justin Thomas to beat John Huh -110 @ The Greek TIED
Another matchup with a dominant h2h record in 2015: this time it is 11-5-0 in Thomas' favour and that includes 12-4-0 in rd1 alone. With Thomas finishing 30th in his only previous appearance here and Huh's record reading mc-mdf-mc, I would have expected much shorter odds on Thomas to win this matchup. Stewart Cink to beat Michael Thompson -106 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] WON by 2
There are very similar angles in this matchup. Thomas has missed the cut in each of the last three years and by some distance - by 10, 5 and 4 shots respectively - whereas Cink is a former winner on this course in 2008. And in terms of the h2h stats, Cink holds a dominant 10-3-0 record over the past 12 months, so again I would have expected shorter odds on the selection. No round 2 plays. No round 3 plays. No round 4 plays. |
NOTES
* UPDATE: 18th September 2012 *
Following the dramatic reversal in the performance of my
18-hole tips over the last two months, there will be a change in my posting
policy:
There will now be posted up to a maximum of five plays per round,
but only for the PGA, European, Champions, LPGA and Nationwide Tours.
This does include co-sanctioned events by these Tours.
As before, these plays will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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