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2-6; -16.48pts (system plays: 4-2-0) Round 1 plays (4pts): Zach Johnson to beat Paul Casey +100 @ Paddy Power TIED
A big difference in form between a player who has seven top-20 finishes in his last eight starts and a player who has withdrawn from two of his last three events (and finished 43rd in the other). I don't see Johnson as a contender this week, but Casey is in poor form and it has been eight years since he finished better than 40th in this event. No matter how much the course should suit Casey more than his opponent, this is still a U.S. Open and I can't see him as the favourite in this matchup. Chris Kirk to beat Patrick Reed +109 @ 5Dimes [also available @ SkyBet, Pinnacle, The Greek and Carib] LOST by 4
Whether it is off-course family issues or a lack of on-course focus, Reed hasn't been in contention to win an event in over three months. He has made lots of cuts, but has not been at the top of his game. The same cannot be said for Kirk who won the Crowne Plaza Invitational and is now only one place behind Reed in the World Rankings. Kirk finished ahead of him in their only common previous U.S. Open (2014) and has a far better demeanour to coping with a U.S. Open setup and the particularly high element of luck that is expected to play its part on this course. As with the previous matchup, I wouldn't have made Reed the favourite in this matchup. John Senden to beat Joost Luiten +105 @ 5Dimes LOST by 4
With top-15 finishes in two of the last three U.S. Opens, Senden appears to be a better-suited player to this event than Luiten who missed the cut on his debut last year. The Dutchman is without a top-10 finish in 2015 so I don't expect that to happen this week. Senden finished in the top-10 in The Players Championship and is a perfect 5-0-0 h2h against Luiten in 2015. Again, I have a different player as the favourite in the matchup. [unofficial rd4 system play: Lee D tb Aiken +106 (L); Harman tb Levy -105 (W)] Round 2 plays (4pts): Jim Furyk to beat Miguel Angel Jimenez -138 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Pinnacle, The Greek and Carib] WON by 6
Jimenez recovered well from a poor start and looks set to make his first cut in this event since 2008, but that still doesn't make him on a par with the World #3 who won at Hilton Head two months ago and has top-5 finishes in three of his last five events. Furyk also ranked 6th in greens in regulation yesterday and with course conditions always tending to get harder during U.S. Open week, his more accurate ball control should see him rise up the leaderboard. Jason Dufner to beat Marc Warren -135 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Pinnacle, The Greek and Carib] WON by 2
Dufner also ranked 6th in greens in regulation yesterday and that is a continuation of the improved form that he has showed over the last month. He is still not at the level that has seen him secure top-5 finishes in two of the last three U.S. Opens, but he is a far better player than Warren who has made the cut in five of six events in the U.S., but never finished in the top-10 there. He has also missed two of his last three cuts, so even though he finished day one inside the top-10, he looks far less likely to stay there than Dufner. Brian Harman to beat Alexander Levy -112 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] LOST by 10
Opposing the European Tour player in this matchup as well. Levy did well to finish day one in 26th position as only 22 players hit fewer greens in regulation than the Frenchman. Harman, for his part, ranked 20th in greens in regulation yesterday and, with top-10 finishes in two of his last five starts, has the form to shoot another sub-par round today. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Johnson D tb Mickelson +100 (W); Poulter tb Holmes -125 (L)] No round 3 plays. Round 4 plays (4pts): Kevin Na to beat Brooks Koepka +103 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Pinnacle, The Greek and Carib] LOST by 5
I'll gladly take these odds to back Na who has finished in the top-20 in each of his last nine events and is just one shot outside that mark after three rounds. Koepka did in the Phoenix Open at the start of the year, but Na has finished ahead of him in each of their five strokeplay events since that event and shouldn't be the underdog to continue that run today. Koepka, after all, ranks 142nd in Final Round Scoring Average on the PGA Tour. Ian Poulter to beat Paul Casey +100 @ Paddy Power LOST by 5
Poulter can't match Na's form, but he isn't that far behind: it has been over three months since he finished outside the top-30 and he is currently inside that mark this week. I fully expect him to stay there given this form and beat Casey who has a poor record in this event and who has finished ahead of him just once in seven common strokeplay events in 2015. Ian Poulter to beat Brooks Koepka +100 @ Paddy Power [available generally] LOST by 8
A combination of the two previous plays, so nothing more to add other than the odds look better at evens with 'ties push' than at higher odds but ties lose. [unofficial rd4 system plays: Streb tb Chappell +100 (W); Snedeker tb Holmes -117 (W)] |
NOTES
* UPDATE: 18th September 2012 *
Following the dramatic reversal in the performance of my
18-hole tips over the last two months, there will be a change in my posting
policy:
There will now be posted up to a maximum of five plays per round,
but only for the PGA, European, Champions, LPGA and Nationwide Tours.
This does include co-sanctioned events by these Tours.
As before, these plays will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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