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2-5; -6.94pts (system plays: 2-0-0) Round 1 plays (2pts): Adam Scott to beat Henrik Stenson -110 @ 5Dimes LOST by 4
Stenson matched Scott last week with a 4th place finish, but that was the Australian's first event of 2015 and I'd expect an improved showing this week as there is no much uncertainty over the first event after such a layoff. He also has a sizeable advantage over Stenson in that he has played in this event five times previously at Innisbrook whereas Stenson is making his debut here and doesn't sound too sure in his interview about his chances around this course: "I can see why certain types of players have done well around this golf course. It will be interesting. I'll give you better idea on Sunday, I guess" and "it's always interesting to see a new venue and yeah, it should work out fine for me if I play all right and we'll see for the years to come what the plan is going to be." K.J. Choi to beat Boo Weekley -103 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] LOST by 3
A matchup between two regulars and a multiple-winner here with Choi (2002, 2006); he was also second in 2010. Weekly was also 2nd two years ago, but given that he has failed to finish in the top-50 in any of his other six attempts in the last eight years, it appears that this is not really a course that suits him. Choi holds a 9-2-1 h2h record against him since last year and their h2h record on this course in 5-2-0 in Choi's favour over 72 holes and 7-0-0 in his favour in rd1. I'd certainly make Choi a clear favourite in this matchup. Round 2 plays (2pts): Henrik Stenson to beat Patrick Reed -120 @ SkyBet [also available @ 5Dimes, Pinnacle, The Greek and Carib] LOST by 2
Four consecutive bogeys from the 14th to the 17th hole from Scott made opposing Stenson unprofitable yesterday, but the Swede's game was still impressive yesterday - he didn't record a single bogey in his first competitive round on this course. Reed has played in this event once previously and missed the cut by six shots on that occasion two years ago. He is already outside the cut line after rd1 and ranking 96th in driving accuracy and 98th in greens in regulation yesterday, it looks unlikely that he will play well enough to break par for the first time around this course today. Jordan Spieth to beat Patrick Reed -138 @ Paddy Power WON by 1
Opposing Reed again with another very consistent player. Spieth has finished in the top-20 in both previous visits and in each of his last three events. He is outside that mark at the moment, but he is playing well enough (he rankedd 14th in greens in regulation yesterday) to correct that today. Daniel Summerhays to beat Will Mackenzie +100 @ 5Dimes and The Greek [also available @ Pinnacle and Carib] TIED
4th last year and 6th last week make Mackenzie an unlikely player to oppose, but this is only his third start in four months and he does tend to struggle in rd2 - he ranked 148th in Round 2 Scoring Average last year (Summerhays was 14th and Summerhays holds a 12-4-1 h2h record against him over the last 12 months in rd2). Summerhays has shown decent form over the last month and ranked 4th in greens in regulation yesterday. He can certainly score much better today and looks decent value at these odds in this rd2 matchup. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Westwood tb Mackenzie -125 (W); Howell tb Bae -110 (W)] Round 3 play (2pts): Brendon De Jonge to beat Kevin Streelman +100 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, SkyBet, The Greek and Carib] LOST by 1
Backing the leader against a player in 2nd place. Admittedly, De Jonge is 0-for-3 when leading after 36 holes on the PGA Tour, but when he was last in this position (2012 Justin Timberlake Shriners Hospital Open), he shot 66-67 over the weekend to hold onto the lead by the end of rd3, but lose out by just one shot to Ryan Moore. I don't expect De Jonge to win, but I expect him to remain in contention longer than Streelman who is 2nd after 36 holes for the fifth time on the PGA Tour. In the previous four occasions, he has 75-71-74-71 in rd3 and finished 29th-8th-3rd-26th. Round 4 plays (2pts): Matt Kuchar to beat Patrick Reed -114 @ Pinnacle [available generally] LOST by 9
Two players in the top-5, but Reed has been poor this week - he ranks 67th (of 71) in driving accuracy ad 40th in greens in regulation. He has scored well, but always from poor position and it is unlikely that he can keep saving his scorecard when he is driving so poorly. Kuchar is, as ever, the far more consistent player and, while he may have difficulty winning events, he should be a challenger for the lead at some point this afternoon. Billy Hurley to beat Nick Taylor -109 @ Pinnacle [available generally] WON by 1
Taylor is another who has struggled to find the greens this week (ranking 58th of 71), yet he is in 10th place alongside Hurley (7th in that category). Admittledly, Taylor did win the 2014 Sanderson Farms Championship when four shots off the lead after rd3, but in 20 PGA Tour starts, his 2nd-best finish on this Tour is 29th so this is relatively uncharted territory for him even though he has won a PGA Tour title. Playing poorly and in an unfamilar leaderboard position, Taylor should be a player to oppose today. |
NOTES
* UPDATE: 18th September 2012 *
Following the dramatic reversal in the performance of my
18-hole tips over the last two months, there will be a change in my posting
policy:
There will now be posted up to a maximum of five plays per round,
but only for the PGA, European, Champions, LPGA and Nationwide Tours.
This does include co-sanctioned events by these Tours.
As before, these plays will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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