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5-2; +15.84pts (system plays: 2-1-0) Round 1 plays (4pts unless stated): K.J. Choi to beat Padraig Harrington +110 @ Paddy Power WON by 2
Harrington did win the Honda Classic in March, but in his five subsequent events, he has finished mc-49th-67th-mc-42nd, so there is no indication that he will be competitive this week. Choi's form in his last five events is better - 15th-50th-mc-36th-42nd - and he is more consistent, making the cut in 9 of 12 events this season. That's enough to indicate that he shouldn't be the underdog in this matchup despite the Honda result. Jason Kokrak to beat Daniel Berger +105 @ SkyBet [2pts] LOST by 6
Two in-form players, but moreso Kokrak than Berger: since the Valspar Championship, Kokrak has four top-20 finishes in six starts, Berger has two in seven starts. In terms of their h2h record, Kokrak leads Berger 4-1-1 over that period. With course experience as well - he was inside the top-10 in each of the first three rounds in 2013 and finished in the top-25 last year - Kokrak holds a clear advantage over his course rookie opponent. Round 2 plays (4pts): Hunter Mahan to beat Robert Streb -105 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes] LOST by 4
Streb did win the 2014 McGladrey Classic, but that was from off the pace - he was 5 shots back and in 12th place at the start of the final round - and he has no other experience of leading a PGA Tour event after any round. He has been 1st after rd1 twice on the Web.com Tour, but fell from the lead in rd2 on both occasions, so I don't expect to fare any better on the PGA Tour. Mahan is a player who is far more consistent - he missed his first cut last week since July - so he should be the perfect player to oppose an inexperienced tournament leader. Phil Mickelson to beat Louis Oosthuizen -150 @ Paddy Power WON by 4
Making his course debut, Oosthuizen shot 76 and is now in 134th place, Will be bounce back today? The evidence suggests not. This will be the 12th time that he has started rd2 outside the top-100 on the PGA Tour and he has made the just cut once from this position previously (2012 Transitions Championship) and that was the only occasion when he shot a sub-70 round in rd2 and only the second occasion when he has broken par in rd2 from this position. All aspects of his game were very poor yesterday, so he deserves to be a large underdog against a player with such a good record on this course. Bill Haas to beat Louis Oosthuizen -130 @ The Greek [also available @ 5Dimes, Pinnacle and Carib] TIED
Also opposing Oosthuizen with Haas who finished the day four shots ahead of Oosthuizen. He is good form with a top-5 finish last week and he also has two top-5 finishes on this course, so he should be capable of beating a struggling Oosthuizen. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Choi tb Harrington -110 (W); Furyk tb Mickelson +100 (L)] No round 3 plays. Round 4 plays (4pts); Geoff Ogilvy to beat Matt Jones +120 @ Paddy Power [available generally] WON by 6
Backing Ogilvy on this course. In his own words: "Something about the course that I obviously like, like it suits my eye or something" and little wonder given that he is 10-for-10 in top-40 finishes on this course and is currently 14th after rd3. Jones reaches the final round on this course for the first time since 2011 and has made his first cut since March, so doesn't warrant favouritism in this matchup this week, at least. Geoff Ogilvy to beat Sean O'Hair +116 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] WON by 4
O'Hair has a mixed bag at Quail Hollow - he won in 2009, but has just one other top-60 finish in his eight previous appearances here. He was eight shots behind Ogilvy when he missed the cut last week and is already behind him this week. On this course, I don't expect Ogilvy to allow O'Hair to catch him today. Boo Weekley to beat Carlos Ortiz +105 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] WON by 2
Two players inside the top-10 and I don't see any reason for Ortiz to be the favourite in this matchup. He has been inside the top-10 after 54 holes of a PGA Tour just once previously (2015 Northern Trust Open) and he shot 75 in rd4 on that occasion. Weekley, by contrast, has been in this position eight times on the PGA Tour since 2013 and shot a sub-70 round every time, He holds a 6-3-0 h2h record against Ortiz in 2015 and he shot the lower rd4 score every time this year than they have both played on Sunday. Weekley's experience should see him secure his top-10 position today; Ortiz's history suggests that he is less likely to stay there. [unofficial rd4 system play: Cink tb Glover -106 (W)] |
NOTES
* UPDATE: 18th September 2012 *
Following the dramatic reversal in the performance of my
18-hole tips over the last two months, there will be a change in my posting
policy:
There will now be posted up to a maximum of five plays per round,
but only for the PGA, European, Champions, LPGA and Nationwide Tours.
This does include co-sanctioned events by these Tours.
As before, these plays will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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