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5-3; +5.12pts Round 1 plays (4pts unless stated): Ernie Els to beat David Toms +101 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] WON by 2
Top-20 finishes in four of the last five years and in two of his last three starts are usually good reasons to side with Toms, but he is a slow starter in events - Els leads him 4-1-1 h2h in rd1 this year and 11-3-1 in rd1 since last year and he did play poorly in the PGA Championship last week. Els' confidence should be boosted by his top-25 finish last week and by yesterday's news that he had been named the 2015 Payne Stewart Award recipient. I'll back him at these odds so early in the tournament. Stewart Cink to beat J.J. Henry -103 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] [2pts] TIED
Henry did win two weeks ago in the Barracuda Championship - a modified stableford event - but it was just his 3rd top-40 finish in the last six months (19 starts) and he finished down in 72nd place last week. Cink has had a 20th place in the Open Championship and a 5th place finish in the Canadian Open over the last five weeks and has the form to beat Henry who is playing in his 9th consecutive PGA Tour event. Round 2 plays (2pts): Cameron Smith to beat Ollie Schniederjans -111 @ Paddy Power LOST by 1 Carl Petterson to beat Jonas Blixt +100 @ SkyBet WON by 3 Luke Donald to beat Patrick Rodgers -140 @ 5Dimes LOST by 1 Chad Campbell to beat Aaron Baddeley -133 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] WON by 7 Luke Donald to beat Jason Dufner +105 @ SkyBet WON by 3 Round 3 plays (2pts): Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano to beat Lucas Glover +100 @ 5Dimes TIED
Both players are now resigned to the Web.com Tour Finals after falling back in rd2 and I don't see Glover getting back into contention. It has been over two months since he reached the final round - every finish has been mc or mdf - and he ranks 175th in Round 3 Scoring Average on Tour. Fernando-Castano averages 1.28 shots better in that category and is one shot closer to the lead, though he will have far less pressure on him over the rest of the season as he can fall back on European Tour membership for next season. Vijay Singh to beat Jerry Kelly +115 @ The Greek [also available @ 5Dimes, Pinnacle and Carib] LOST by 2
I'll take these odds on Vijay. His form is a little better than Kelly and he is virtually certain to have qualified for next week's first Playoff event. I'd price them as pick'em, so there is enough value here for a small play. Round 4 play (2pts): Harris English to beat Patrick Rodgers -111 @ Paddy Power [available generally] WON by 1
This the 14th event in which they have both played and only twice has Rodgers finished ahead of English and, in terms of rd4 only, Rodgers has never shot a lower final round score than English. Rodgers did finish 3rd in the Barracuda Championship against a weak field, but that is his only top-25 finish in his last 10 starts, so there isn't particularly strong evidence to indicate that he will reverse this one-sided matchup. |
NOTES
* UPDATE: 18th September 2012 *
Following the dramatic reversal in the performance of my
18-hole tips over the last two months, there will be a change in my posting
policy:
There will now be posted up to a maximum of five plays per round,
but only for the PGA, European, Champions, LPGA and Nationwide Tours.
This does include co-sanctioned events by these Tours.
As before, these plays will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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