18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

1-5; -8.52pts  (system plays: 0-1-0) 

Round 1 plays (2pts):

Steve Stricker to beat Billy Horschel -105 @ 5Dimes  WON by 2
A win and two missed cuts in this event in the last three years rather sums up Horschel's unpredictability and the same has been the case recently - he finished 3rd in the Texas Open, but has failed to finish in the top-40 in any other event since the Phoenix Open in January. Stricker has a very good, consistent record in this event, finished 28th in The Masters - his first start in six months - and despite his virtual semi-retirement, he still competes consistently at a much higher level than Horschel - he leads him 11-1-0 h2h over their last 12 common strokeplay events.

Justin Rose to beat Jason Day -105 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 2
The Masters was confirmation that Rose's game was returning to its previous level, while also confirming that Day's was not at the level that it was in January-December. With Day skipping this event since 2009 (his course record reads mc-32nd) and Rose finishing 10th-15th-8th in the last three years, it is clear which player believes that TPC Louisiana suits his game. With the addition of their recent form, it should be Rose installed as the favourite in this matchup.

Charles Howell to beat Daniel Berger -110 @ 5Dimes [also available @ SkyBet]  LOST by 4
Berger's form is another that has dipped since the start of the year when he had four top-15 finishes in six starts; since then he has had just one in his last five and only two of those five where finishes inside the top-70. Making his course debut, he is one to oppose with Howell who has shown some very good form recently (apart from a couple of missed cuts) and already has two runner-up finishes in this event.

[unofficial rd1 system play: Merrick tb Hadley -110 (L)]

Round 2 plays (2pts):

Charles Howell to beat Daniel Berger +138 @ SkyBet  LOST by 3
A repeat of the rd1 matchup, but with much better odds. Berger closed with four birdies in the last five holes to turn a win into a loss for the rd1 matchup and finish 5th on the leaderboard, but his ball-striking was totally different to his scoring - he ranked 50th or higher for dirving distance, driving accuracy and greens in regulation yet finished 5th in scoring. That is why he ranked #1 in 'Strokes Gained Tee to Green' yesterday - it is a measure of how well a player scores relative to his play and not a measure of how well he played. Howell can certainly beat him today.

Dustin Johnson to beat Jason Day -106 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, SkyBet, The Greek and Carib]  LOST by 5
Johnson is certainly a player to side with at the moment. He has finished 6th or better in five of his last six starts and that contrasts sharply with Day whose form has dipped since he displayed a similar record at the very start of the year.

Steve Stricker to beat Justin Thomas -105 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 6
Big difference in quality between these two players. One still remains competitive even in semi-retirement - Stricker has finished outside the top-40 just once in his last 10 starts - whereas the other struggles to reach that mark despite playing almost every week - Thomas has just two top-40 finishes in his last eight starts as he form has dipped since such a strong January.

Round 3 play (2pts):

Cameron Tringale to beat Daniel Berger +105 @ The Greek  TIED
Opposing Berger again. He will return to the course this morning to complete the final three holes of his 2nd round and will then have a long wait before he tees off again, so the advantage in terms of preparation is with Tringale who completed his 2nd round yesterday. Both are currently in 3rd place, but Tringale has played far better over the first two rounds - he ranks 5th in driving accuracy and 6th in greens in regulation, whereas Berger is 66th and 28th in those categories. That difference in ball-striking should not be such a surprise: Tringale has played far better over the last couple of months and he has three top-20 finishes in the last four years here.

May add more plays if more odds are available after the conclusion of the 2nd round. 

Additional round 3 play (2pts): 

Brendon de Jonge to beat Cameron Tringale -102 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes and Carib]  TIED
De Jonge led after rd1 and has now dropped to 5th, but it wasn't that he played poorly in rd2 - he again hit of 15 of 18 greens in regulation and still only two shots off the pace. He has been in very good form recently and, in this form and with such ball-striking this week, he looks likely to at least keep pace with the top of the leaderboard.