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14-0; +2.10pts Pre-tournament plays: LAY 20pts liability Matt Every 85 mc
Aaron Baddeley 240 mc
Jhonattan Vegas 330 46th
Patrick Rodgers 350 20th
Freddie Jacobson 190 46th
Charles Howell 90 46th
Graeme McDowell 75 mc
Every is not a name that you would expect to be attempting the three-peat and I really don't see him getting close to achieving it - he has missed three of five cuts this year and is yet to secure a top-20 finish in 2016; Baddeley's form is certainly better this year, but he is still not challenging for titles; Vegas has only made one cut this year and has a best-finish of 43rd in this event; Rodgers is even more out-of-form with four cuts missed in five starts this year, plus he is making his course debut this week; Jacobson continued to show this year (Farmers Insurance Open and, especially, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am) that when he does get into contention he tends to struggle over the weekend, and that when he does not get into contention, he misses the cut; apart from the 'miss the cut' aspect, the same can be said for Howell who has five top-25 finishes this year, but only one top-5 finish, and has made the cut in 13 of the last 14 Arnold Palmer Invitationals, but secured only one top-10 finish; McDowell won the OHL Classic last year, but he has survived only one cut in 2016 (Honda Classic, 5th) and he finished almost last in no-cut Tournament of Champions and mid-leaderboard in the no-cut Cadillac Championship. Pre-rd3 plays: LAY 20pts liability Adam Scott 80 12th
Rory McIlroy 200 27th
K.J. Choi 200 36th
Marc Leishman 60 17th
It's a very strong top of the leaderboard with Jason Day, Henrik Stenson and Justin Rose in the top-3 positions so I don't see all three of them helping the chasing pack over the weekend so it will be quite an effort if the winner is to come from outside that trio. It really would be quite an effort from Scott to win from 29th position and nine shots behind Day so I'm surprised that he is available at double-figure odds; McIlroy is further back in 36th place and cannot boast Scott's form figures of 2nd-1st-1st; Choi is closer to the leaders, but he is still outside the top-10 and has shown on a couple of occasions this year that he is playing well enough to contend to struggles to convert; while Leishman is the closest of the four in 8th place and leads the field in greens in regulation so far this week after a particularly good 1st round, but he is still six shots behind Day who is a proven front-runner so I would price Leishman at double these odds. Pre-rd4 plays: LAY 20pts liability Zach Johnson 300 5th
Emiliano Grillo 200 17th
Jamie Lovemark 210 6th
I can't see beyond Day - he is 4-for-5 when he has started the final round in sole lead with the only failure to convert back in 2010 (Deutsche Bank Championship). Johnson is looking for only his second top-10 finish in 2016 and has never won on the PGA Tour from 7+ shots back at the start of the final round; Grillo is a shot closer to Day, but he is also without the form needed to be a serious challenger - his best finish in 2016 is 18th; while it is also difficult to see Lovemark challenging after he could have started the day no more than four shots back, but his play at the last hole would have made for a difficult evening - on the fairway with only 149 yards to the flag, he found the bunker, took two to get out and then missed from inside six feet. |
