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12-2; +0.39pts Pre-tournament plays: Andrew Loupe 110 mc
Hunter Mahan 120 mc
Robby Shelton 140 47th
Bobby Wyatt 160 72nd
Andres Romero 220 31st
A 6th place finish last year gets Loupe lower odds than he deserves given that he has finished mdf-mc-mc-mc-mc in his last five starts
A change of caddie at the end of last year didn't arrest Mahan's decline - he has missed 9 of 14 cuts and has a best finish of 43rd in 2016
Shelton finished 3rd as an amateur in this event last year and gets a sponsor invite, but the Alabama native should struggle to repeat last year's form he missed the cut in his first event as a professional (St Jude Classic last month) and has finished only 65th and 68th in two Web.com events since
Wyatt is another player out of form, missing the cut in his last three PGA Tour events and only managing 35th on the lowly Mackenzie Tour Canada last time out
And another player out of form - Romero has missed his last five cuts and can be easily opposed on that basis despite his 10th place finish last year Pre-rd3 plays: BACK 1pt Hudson Swafford 8.6 47th
David Toms 26 11th
Vegas is an odds-on favourite with a six-shot lead, but it is always very difficult to follow up a very low round - he shot 60 yesterday - and Swafford looks very well-placed to take advantage in 2nd place; he has been in good form recently and has won on the Web.com Tour so could easily be a point or two lower than this
There is not a lot of experience at the top of the leaderboard, but Toms stands out in that respect - he finished in the top-20 last year and has shown this week that he can still compete at this level; if Vegas does come to the field as expected, he is one of the more likely players to convert the opportunity from his current 4th place position LAY 20pts liability Boo Weekley 250 11th
Martin Laird 340 62nd
Ben Crane 130 44th
Ben Martin 380 20th
Michael Kim 80 11th
In 29th place and 12 shots off the pace, Weekley will need to play better than he has done all year - just one top-10 finish in 16 starts - to be a real contender for this event
Laird is even further back in 42nd place and while he has shown better form recently than Weekley, he will still need two very low rounds to get close to winning this event
Crane is close and only ten shots off the pace, but since he hasn't secured a top-20 finish in over two years, he is a player who warrants very large odds to win from this position
Ranked 100th for both driving distance and driving accuracy so far this week, Martin has done well to make the cut, so there is very little indication that he could significantly improve his current 42nd place position
Kim is the best-placed of the five in 10th place and nine shots off the pace, but he has yet to secure a top-15 finish on the PGA Tour or win on the Web.com Tour, so it will be a career-best to stay in his current position, let alone challenge for the lead Pre-rd4 plays: LAY 20pts liability Brian Harman 65 8th
Roberto Castro 27 11th
Vegas did come back to the field and Harman is now only six shots back in 11th place, but his ball-striking has been poor so far this week - he ranks 44th in greens in regulation - so looks unlikely to shoot the career round that will get him to the top of the leaderboard in this low-scoring event
Castro is a shot closer, but he is still five shots back and I would certainly price him at higher odds than this from that far back |
