13-2; +8.94pts

Pre-tournament plays:

Dustin Johnson 12.5  18th
Si-Woo Kim 90  mc
Brooks Koepka 36  70th
Tony Finau 200  12th
Brandt Snedeker 50  48th
David Lingmerth 170  mc
Johnson missed the cut by seven shots in his last outing and that was four weeks ago, so this price looks rather short given that performance and the time away from the Tour
Kim does have the form, having won last week, but it is extremely difficult to win back-to-back events and even moreso for someone makng their first event on the PGA Tour and against such a high quality field
Koepka has managed a couple of top-10 finishes since he withdrew from the Bridgestone Invitational with an ankle injury, but he was clearly in discomfort in those events and hasn't played for three weeks, so looks opposable at these odds and against this field
With just one top-10 finish this year and no previous experience on this course, it is easy to oppose Finau even at these odds
There has been some signs of improved form in Snedeker's game over the last month, but he has struggled to find the form that saw him finish 3rd-2nd-1st in his first three starts of 2016; I'd price him a little higher than this
Lingmerth won the Memorial Tournament last year, but has rarely looked like repeating the feat, but is one to oppose at this stage of the event.

Pre-rd3 plays:

BACK 1pt

Rickie Fowler 8  7th
Reed has finished outside the top-10 in the last two occasions that he has been in the lead after rd2, so 2nd-placed Fowler is in the best position to take advantage; being on the bubble for the Ryder Cup has certainly focused his game and as a three-time winner on the PGA Tour, he has proven that he can handle the added pressure.

LAY 20pts

Jordan Spieth 8.6  10th
Sean O'Hair 95  2nd
Jason Day 7  4th
Ricky Barnes 120  53rd
Billy Horschel 160  13th
The odds on Spieth are far too short for a player four shots off the pace and ranked 54th in greens in regulation of the 79 who made the cut
O'Hair is alongside Spieth, but given that his best finish this season is 10th, he needs a very good week just to make it to the next Playoff event
And another four shots off the lead in 5th place, Day is the defending champion, but that was on a different course and he has been extremely fortunate not to be more punished for his errant driving; this suggests that these odds are too short
Barnes is a shot further back in 10th place and has shown some form with a couple of 5th place finishes over the last month, but, like Spieth, he has struggled to find the greens this week so will need to play much better if he is to record another top-5 finish
Horschel is much further back in 26th place, so I would have expected much larger odds, this he has at least made the cut in this event for the first time

Pre-rd4 plays:

BACK 1pt

Adam Scott 6.4  4th
Adding Scott to the portfolio with Fowler now taking a one-shot lead heading into the final round. With Reed falling back to 2nd place, Scott is in solo 3rd place and it the next challenger to Fowler, so it seems sensible to hedge with such a player in close contention

LAY 20pts liability

Emiliano Grillo 18  2nd
Jason Kokrak 160  7th
Grillo is three shots back in 4th place and has been in good form recently with plenty of top-15 finishes, but his sole PGA Tour win came in the Frys.com Open against a much weaker field so another winless, but high finish, looks likely for the Argentinean
Kokrak is five shots back in 10th place and has been in poor form recently - no top-25 finish in over four months - so this has been a much better event than expected and I don't see either the form or the experience here to reach the summit in such a strong event