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10-2; +1.45pts Pre-tournament plays: LAY 20pts liability Bryson DeChambeau 60 mc
Bobby Wyatt 240 mc
Martin Flores 310 63rd
John Huh 310 mc
Tyler Aldridge 320 mc
DeChambeau is the only one of the leading players that I feel confident opposing at this stage of the event - he did play this course a couple of times during his time at SMU, but he has admitted that his previous success was taking his toll on him is an emotional person and that, after two missed cuts in a row, he is not where he want to be
Wyatt secured his first top-25 finish three weeks ago in the Zurich Classic, but returned to type to miss the cut by five shots in his next event; he has very little chance of challenging on this course where he is making his debut
Flores has plenty of experience here, but has a best-finish of 39th in seven attempts; now that he has lost his PGA Tour Card, I think it even less likely that he will be a contender this year
Huh had a top-10 finish in 2013 but a repeat looks very unlikely in his current form: in his last five events, he has finished 68th-mc-mdf-mc-mc and hasn't recorded a sub-70 score in any of his last 14 rounds
Aldridge has missed the cut in over two-thirds of his PGA Tour start (including this event in his previous visit) and is yet to record a top-10 finish - I don't see why he even has a lay price in this market Pre-rd3 plays: BACK 1pt Ben Crane 16 24th
Bud Cauley 32 4th
Crane has shown no particular form coming into this event and his ball-striking was far from perfect in rd1, but he was much improved in rd2 and now leads this event - this is a large price for a player with a one-shot lead after 36 holes and who has a 3-for-5 record on the PGA Tour when leading after 36 holes (it is 2-for-2 when he is sole leader after 36 holes)
The market is dominated by Spieth being in 2nd place in his hometown event, but that typically adds more pressure on a player, particularly over the weekend, and that is evident from his finishes here: 16th-32nd-68th-37th-30th; by contrast Cauley is also in 2nd place and these odds look much too large for someone in that position and back to full health LAY 20pts liability Patrick Rodgers 75 46th
Dustin Johnson 12.5 12th
Hudson Swafford 140 34th
Charl Schwartzel 180 58th
Danny Lee 36 18th
Having missed the cut in four of his last five starts and in his only previous visit here, Rodgers is a surprising player inside the top-10, but he was in a similar position in the Zurich Classic three weeks ago and finshed 31st and he had similar experiences when he was in this position in two events in November, so he is one to oppose when inside the top-10
Johnson is alongside Rodgers in 8th place and four shots back, but this price is too low for a player who has regularly got himself into these positions over the last couple of year and converted so few times
A big difference in price to Swafford who is in the same position as Rodgers and Johnson, but given that his recent form has been awful - mc-mc-mc-mc-57th - and his best-ever finish on this Tour is 8th, he is justifiably priced an extremely unlikely winner from four shots back
Schwartzel is only slightly higher-priced, but he is seven shots off the pace and outside the top-30; he should be priced much higher from that position
A final player in 8th place and four shots off the lead, Lee is playing on his home course and finished rd1 at the top of the leaderboard alongside Garcia and Wagner, but, as pointed out earlier, home advantage can turned negative in the later rounds when in contention and that was the case yesterday when he ranked outside the top-100 in greens in regulation No pre-rd4 plays. |
