Odds: Betfair Summary
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2-3; -5.88pts 

Small stakes during January until the Tour gets fully underway. 

Pre-tournament plays

BACK 2pts

J.J. Henry 360 & lay 6pts @ 55  31st
In two previous visits, he has finished 8th and 13th so he can clearly play well on this course. He also finished both rd1 and rd2 inside the top-20 in each of his first four events last year, so he is a good early-season player and can certainly achieve much lower odds during the event.

Troy Merritt 330 & lay 4pts 95  18th
No course experience this time, but Merritt was very close to being a two-time winner last year and so doesn't warrant these odds. He did win the Quicken Loans National in August by three shots, but earlier in the year he had a three-shot lead heading into the final round of the RBC Heritage. He was overtaken and finished in 3rd place, two shots out of the playoff, but it shows that he can get momentum during an event and 95 wouldn't be too far away if he posted a decent first round.

LAY 2pts liability

J.B. Holmes 44  24th
This should be a course that suits his length off the tee, but only Kevin Sutherland (wd) finished below him on the leaderboard last year and in his previous appearance (2009), he finished 29th of 33. With indifferent performances in the two off-season events in December, he doesn't look like performing better this time around.

Jimmy Walker 29 10th
Lost in a playoff last year to Patrick Reed, but finished well down the field in his previous appearance. Without a top-15 finish since May, I don't see him going as close again this year.

Round 4 play 

BACK 2pts

Brooks Koepka 20 & lay 3pts @ 11.5  3rd

While I make Spieth 1/6 (1.17) to win this, I don't think that he should be as low as 1/9 (1.11), so I think his price will drift up during the final round, particularly as he this is only the second time that Spieth has held a lead of more than two shots at the start of the final round. He was impressive on the previous occasion - the 2015 Masters - but he had a five-shot lead after 36 holes and that had reduced to four shots by the end of the tournament. Rather than lay Spieth, I'll back Koepka to at least get as low as 11.5 and then it is a 'free bet plus' on him to win 6.50pts. He did win last year's Phoenix Open from three shots off the pace at the start of the final round and he got to within a shot of Spieth yesterday. I'll back him to get close again today.