12-2; +8.90pts 

Pre-tournament plays:

LAY 20pts liability

Dustin Johnson 15.5  8th
Martin Laird 230  mc
Brooks Koepka 55  57th
David Lingmerth 320  63rd
Jordan Spieth 14  21st
Tony Finau 170  24th
Opposing Johnson at these odds pre-event; he had one good round last week in his first event since missing the cut in the PGA Championship and it has been four years since he recorded a top-25 finish in this event, so I would expect another decent finish but no return to the form he showed in June-July
Laird has missed the cut three times in a row here, which is difficult to achieve given that there are at most 100 players in the field, so he is one to oppose this week
Koepka also missed the cut last year on his debut with only three players shooting a worse 36-hole score so is another to oppose, particularly as he also played poorly last week
Lingmerth also played poorly last week, missing the cut by three shots, and is 0-for-2 in cuts made at TPC Boston, so I would price him at much higher odds
As with Johnson, I expect Spieth to have a decent event, but the odds are too short on him winning - he did play well in rd2 last week, but was never really in contention and a record of 29th and missed cut in the last two years also suggests that these odds are too short
Finau is another to have missed the cut on his debut last year and hasn't secured a top-10 finish since the Puerto Rico Open in March

Pre-rd3 plays:

BACK 1pt

Kevin Chappell 7.6  8th
Paul Casey 8.6  2nd
These looks fair odds on Chappell, who has a one-shot lead over the rest of the field; he is 0-for-3 when leading after 36 holes on the PGA Tour, but this will the third time this season that he has been in this position so those experience should help him, plus he also has a good record on this course - he was 3rd at this stage of the event last year
Casey is one shot back in 2nd place and has the experience to capitalise if Chappell falters and also hold off Dustin Johnson, the bookies' favourite who is two shots behind the Englishman

LAY 20pts liability

Jimmy Walker 9.2  3rd
Smylie Kaufman 48  24th
Patrick Reed 16.5  5th
Harold Varner 240  33rd
Walker may be 2nd alongside Casey, but he hasn't played like a contender this week - he ranked 63rd in greens in regulation over the first two rounds, primarily because of wayward driving - so this odds looks rather short given those struggles
Kaufman is three shots back in 5th place and similarly has very poor ball-striking stats, ranking outside the top-70 (of 97) in driving distance, driving accuracy and greens in regulation over the first two rounds
Reed has played somewhat better so far this week and, of course, is ni good form having won last week, but it is a very tall ask to win two weeks in a row and, again, the odds looks rather shot for someone in a seven-way tie for 8th place
Varner is in a 12-way tie for 15th place, so has a lot of traffic around him that he has to pass to become a contender; given that he is without a top-50 finish in any of his last five starts, he doesn't have the form to make such a move

Pre-rd4 plays:

LAY 20pts liability

Brian Harman 12  24th
Kevin Chappell 16.5  8th
Having missed three cuts in the last four weeks and sitting 67th in the FedEx Cup standings at the start of the week, Harman main target was to be still in the Playoffs next week - he is guaranteed of that now, but that is not the profile of a player in solo 2nd place who could even close the three-shot gap, let alone seriously challenge the leader 
Chappell is a shot back in a three-way tie for 3rd, but I'm looking to get out of the Back bet on him yesterday - he continued to hit fairways and greens, but rarely looked like making the birdies needed  on this course; Casey has won five out of the last six times that he has been leader at the start of rd4 - I expect him to do so today