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10-5; -36.18pts Pre-tournament plays: BACK 2pts Chad Campbell 520 & lay 8pts @ 130 matched
Backing a player to get into contention rather than win here. Last year, he was 5th-6th-3rd after each of the first three rounds before faltering in rd4. It was a similar story in the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open where he was 5th-1st-3rd-8th after each of the four rounds and he had good form during the Fall season with two top-10 finishes. John Senden 450 & lay 6pts @ 150 69th
Senden is definitely a player to back to get into contention rather than finish the job. He had a good run of form in Australia in November-December, including 2nd in the UNIQLO Masters, and consistently gets himself into the top-20 at stages of a tournament and so available at much lower odds in-running. Alex Cejka 550 & lay 6pts @ 180 mc
Cejka did win the 2015 Puerto Rico Open, but he has since showed that was not a fluke with a particularly goof Fall season: a runners-up finish in the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open and 6th place finish in the RSM Classic. His record in this event isn't great, but he has never played as well on the PGA Tour until last year, so he can be backed to improve significantly here. LAY 20pts liability Justin Rose 28 mc
Phil Mickelson 28 mc
Patrick Reed 28 wd
Jimmy Walker 40 4th
Hideki Matsuyama 42 mc
First start of the year and without a top-25 in six attempts in this event, Rose is easy to oppose at these odds; Mickelson played well last week and he's a three-time winner of this event, but the last time was 15 years ago and in the last four years here, he has finished mc-51st-wd-mc; Reed has played here just once (2013), finishing 11 shots off the pace, so this is clearly a course that he avoids so should not be as low as 28; opposing Walker who has three top-10 finishes in eight attempts here and two top-15 finishes this year, but he hasn't really been near the top of the leaderboard since the Byron Nelson Championship last May; the same can be said for Matsuyama - very consistent with lots of top-20 finishes, but never really looking like winning a PGA Tour title. Pre-rd3 plays: BACK 2pts Rob Oppenheim 110 31st
Just three shots back, these look good odds for a player who may have only played in five previous PGA Tour events, but won on the Web.com Tour last year. LAY 20pts liability Patrick Reed 75 wd
Charles Howell 95 16th
Brandt Snedeker 160 1st
There may be good reason to oppose the two leaders, but with Dustin Johnson just one shot back and 13 players within three shots of the lead, I think that is too much traffic for players like Reed (38th), Howell (27th) and Snedeker (57th) to pass and so there is value in opposing these three. Pre-rd4 plays: LAY 20pts liability Brandt Snedeker 120 1st
Scott Stallings 140 25th
Tony Finau 250 18th
Stallings may only be five shots off the lead, while the others are six, but it is a very congested leaderboard with Stallings 24th and the others 27th. That is a very large amount of traffic to pass to get towards the top of the leaderboard. Regardless of how they have played this week - none in the top-25 for greens in regulation - the simple fact is that only two players have won a PGA Tour (or WGC) from from as far back as 24th after rd3 since 1996: Tommy Gainey (2012 McGladrey Classic) and Smylie Kaufman (Shriners Hospitals for Children Open). With just two wins from this position in 20 years, I think these odds are too short. |
