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Overall: 13-10 (+4.7pts) RD 4: 2-3 (-2.225) 1:10 PM ET Kuchar -130 over Knox 1.5pts 1:20 PM ET Haas +100 over Na 2pts 1:40 PM ET Grace +105 over Johnson 2pts 2:00 PM ET Donald -120 over Kokrak 2.5pts Supported by strong fourth round trends. 5Dimes RD 4: 11:40 AM ET -115 Crane over Baddeley2.5pts Supported by strong fourth round trends. 5Dimes RD 3: 5-2 (+7.925)
11:55 AM ET Baddeley -125over Pettersson 3.5pts 12:05 PM ET Horschel -130 over Finau 2pts 12:15 PM ET Kokrak +110 over Grace 2pts 1:05 PM ET McNeill -130 over Barnes 3.5pts 1:15 PM ET Kelly -105 over Kirk 3.5pts 1:35 PM ET Kizzire -115 over Lingmerth 2pts 1:45 PM ET Donald -110 over Knox 3pts
All supported by strong third round trends. Baddeley, McNeill, and Kelly are supported by multiple undefeated trends.
5Dimes RD 2 Afternoon: 1-2 (-4.125)
12:20 PM ET Donald -150 over Streb 2.5pts 12:40 PM ET Toms -135 over Cink 2.5pts
All supported by undefeated second round trends.
5Dimes RD 2: 8:30 AM ET Brown -130 over Baddeley 2.5pts Supported by strong second round trends.
5Dimes RD 1 Afternoon: 5-3 (+3.125) 12:20 PM ET Lingmerth +135 over Grace 1.5pts 12:40 PM ET Horschell -120 over McDowell 2.5pts 12:50 PM ET Snedeker +158 over Day 1.5pts 1:10 PM ET Brown -130 over Baddeley 2.5pts All supported by strong first round trends. 5Dimes RD 1:
7:10 AM ET O'Hair -125 over Hearn 1.5pts
7:20 AM ET Howell +110 over Na 1.5pts
7:40 AM ET Donald -150 over Streb 2.5pts
7:40 AM ET Knox -115 over English 1.5pts
8:10 AM ET Kuchar -155 over Dufner 2.5pts
All supported by strong 1st round trends.
5Dimes |
TIPPING STRATEGY
My strategy is based on several different theories, which I
have outlined below. It is also 99% based on numbers. Every play I post is
supported by some form of numbers, not what I think should happen.
1) History repeats itself. The large majority of
tournaments each year are played on the same course. And while the players
change, the stats and power rankings that predict success on each course
typically do not. And this is where trends are helpful. (Trends are very
helpful for tournaments with new courses as well)
• The trends that I
use are specific to each round of each tournament. I use approximately 40
different player stats and approximately 50 different power rankings. These
stats and power rankings are for an 8 week period and a 4 week period, and
are also weighted. The win/loss record of each of these stats and power
rankings are accumulated from the three previous years of each tournament.
The average sample size is no less than a 100 head to head matchups for each
round.
2) It is my belief that individual sports provide
the greatest opportunity for playing underdogs. Therefore, determining which
underdogs have the most value can be highly profitable.
• In regards to golf, if an individual has a bad day, he
does not have any teammates to pick up the slack. In addition, betting lines
for the world’s top players are often grossly inflated in order to balance
the action. And even the world’s top players have bad days or extended
periods of bad play. The models I have created and are continuing to develop
(regression analysis) allow me to find high value underdogs.
3) More to come……
STAKING PLAN
My plays are based upon a percentage of my starting bankroll
each season. They range from 1% to 8%, with the large majority ranging from
3% to 5%. In order to stay consistent with my fellow tipsters here on
TourTips, I have converted my % system to a points system. 1% is equal to
0.5pts. Therefore, a 3% play equals 1.5pts, a 5% play equals 2.5pts, etc.
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