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11-0; +2.22pts Pre-tournament plays: LAY 20pts liability Aaron Baddeley 160 mc
Johnson Wagner 210 13th
Cameron Tringale 95 57th
John Senden 310 46th
Jamie Lovemark 80 18th
Charles Howell 80 7th
Baddeley secured his second top-10 finish of 2016 in Puerto Rico last week, but he is still a long way from being able to close out events and this doesn't look likely to change on a course on which he has missed the cut in three of the last four years
Wagner won here in 2008 and lost out in the three-man playoff last year, but he has missed the cut in all six starts in 2016, so a return to the course form that saw him fail to secure a top-25 finish in between those two dates looks likely
Top-20 finishes in each of the last four years ensures Tringale is at shorter odds this week, but no top-25 finishes in his last six starts and a failure to lead any Tour after either 54 holes or 72 holes means that he can be opposed in this market
Senden is another who can be opposed in 'win-only' markets - he has made the cut in 5 of 6 previous attempts on this course, but they have all been in the 18th to 31st place on the leaderboard
Lovemark does get closer to the top of the leaderboard - he secured his 3rd top-10 finish of 2016 last week, though none have been top-5 - but a record of wd-51th-mc on this course suggests that he will not get close this week
Howell is another who makes a lot of cuts, but fails to convert his chances, and so can be counted on to do so again this week Pre-rd4 plays: LAY 20pts liability Kyle Stanley 160 19th
Phil Mickelon 150 13th
Jordan Spieth 40 13th
Charl Schwartzel 290 13th
Kyle Reifers 55 7th
Without a top-50 finish on this course and without a top-20 finish since the Sony Open in Hawaii, Stanley doesn't look likely to improve on his current 10th place position today
Mickelson is further back in 19th which is impressive given that he ranks outside the top-50 in greens in regulation this week, so a career round to get within contention looks very unlikely
Spieth is a shot closer to the lead in 14th, but he has hit even less greens in regulation this week than Mickelson - this price is based on his ability rather than his game at the moment
Schwartzel is with Mickelson in 19th place and he has never won from this far back after 54 holes, not even in South Africa
Reifers is the closest of the group in 7th place, but in the six previous times that he has started the final round inside the top-10, he has finished that round both lower down te leaderboard and further shots off the pace than at the start of the day |
