14-1; +5.49pts

Pre-tournament plays:

LAY 20pts liability

Zach Johnson 8.4  34th
Luke Guthrie 130  mc
Robert Garrigus 46  22nd
Aaron Wise 300  16th
Patrick Rodgers 46  27th
Martin Piller 300  mc
Johnson is a deserved favourite in this event - he has finished 3rd-1st-2nd-2nd-3rd in the last five years - but these are still very low ante-post odds for someone who has had a relatively poor season so far and ranks outside the top-50 in the FedEx Cup standings
Guthrie ranks 166th in the FedEx Cup standings and has fallen so far from his 2013 rookie season that he had to Monday-qualify last week, these odds are far too short for such a player even one playing in his home State
Garrigus finished 5th last week which was just enough to get him inside the top-125 on the FedEx Cup standings with the Playoffs approaching, but that shouldn't make his odds so short this week as he has yet to secure a top-20 finish here in six attempts
Wise has played well on the Mackenzie Tour - Canada, but I'd be very surprised if the 20-year-old featured at all this week
Like Garrigus, Rodgers' 3rd place finish saw him rise up the FedEx Cup standings, but his underlying form is still poor - it was his first top-30 finish since March - and he has missed the cut in three of four previous visits to TPC Deere Run
On the back of six missed cuts in a row and a missed cut in his previous visit to TPC Deere Run, Piller looks unlikely to change his current FedEx Cup standing (166th) this week

Pre-rd3 plays

BACK 1pt

Steve Marino 18.5  8th
Marino leads the field in greens in regulation over the first two rounds so his ball-striking is strong enough to cope with the weekend pressure; further evidence that he can cope is the fact that when he was also 3rd after 36 holes in the Puerto Rico Open in March, he shot 69-70 over the last two rounds to lose out on the title only via a playoff.

LAY 20pts liability

Hudson Swafford 48  47th
Scott Brown 15  16th
Rob Oppenheim 230  70th
Zac Blair 340  56th
Matt Jones 110  27th

Pre-rd4 plays:

LAY 20pts liability

Bud Cauley 140  8th
Steve Marino 170  8th
Andrew Loupe 120  16th
Still six shots off the lead and five shots off the top-3, there is a large gap for Cauley to overcome if he is to improve sufficiently his projected 142nd place on the FedEx Cup standings - that means he will need to be aggressive from the start of the round and I like the odds on him not achieving a career-best round
Opposing Marino after he continues to lead the field in greens in regulation after three rounds, but struggled around the green and now alongside Cauley and too far back from the leading three to be a contender
And opposing the 3rd player who is tied for 8th place - at least he is safe in terms of gaining entry into the Playoffs, but this will be the first time in 10 starts that he has played in hte final round, so the form is not there to say that he will close the six-shot gap on Ryan Moore