|
Overall: 14-14 (-5.7) RD 4: 3-3 (-1.33)
1:25 PM ET Kuchar -120 over Oosthuizen 2.5pts L 1:45 PM ET Berger -125 over Cabrera 2pts W 2:05 PM ET Snedeker -115 over Willet 2.5pts L 2:25 PM ET Day -140 over Spieth 2pts Push All supported by strong fourth round trends.
5Dimes RD 4:
11:35 AM ET Scott -135 over Reed 3pts Push 12:05 PM ET Bello -125 over Piercy 3pts W 12:15 PM ET Aphibarnrat +115 over Lee 2pts W 12:25 PM ET DeChambeau -110 over Fitzpatrick 2.5pts L All supported by strong fourth round trends. A couple more plays coming, will be posted by 12:15 PM ET.
5Dimes RD 3: 5-4 (-3.4)
12:20 PM ET Grillo -125 over Cabrera 2pts L 12:50 PM ET Langer -120 over Love 1.5pts W 1:30 PM ET Day -145 over D Johnson 2pts W 2:00 PM ET DeChambeau +105 over Lowry 1.5pts W 2:20 PM ET Aphibarnrat -110 over Kjeldsen 3.5pts L 2:50 PM ET McIlroy -125 over Spieth 2pts L
All supported by strong third round trends.
5Dimes RD 3: 11:20 AM Bello -120 over English 2.5pts W Supported by very strong third round trend. More plays coming. 5Dimes RD 3: 11:00 AM Rose -130 over Stenson 1.5pts W Supported by very strong third round trend. More plays coming. 5Dimes RD 3: 10:50 AM ET Scott -145 over Kuchar 2.5pts L Supported by very strong third round trend. More plays coming. 5Dimes RD 2 Afternoon: 4-3 (+2.4)
12:30 PM ET Fowler -115 over Z Johnson 2pts W
12:55 PM ET Casey +145 over Spieth 2pts L
1:15 PM ET Matsuyama -190 over Kirk 2pts W
1:40 PM ET Mickelson -115 over Stenson 2pts L
2:00 PM ET Scott -145 over Koepka 2pts Push
All supported by strong second round trends.
5Dimes RD 2:
9:05 AM ET Snedeker -140 over Bradley 3pts W 9:35 AM ET B Watson -155 over Grace 3pts W 10:30 AM ET Walker -165 over Lahiri 2pts L
All supported by strong second round trends. More plays will be posted by 10:30 AM ET.
5Dimes RD 1: 2-4 (-3.38)
9:35 AM ET Reed -115 over Oosthuizen 1.5pts L
9:45 AM ET Casey +130 over Spieth 1.5pts L
10:30 AM ET Sullivan +135 over Na 2pts L
11:05 AM ET Scott -155 over Koepka 3pts L
12:00 PM ET Snedeker -150 over Bradley 3pts W
1:25 PM ET Walker -155 over Lahiri 3.5pts W
All supported by very strong first round trends. There may be a few more plays. If so, they will be posted by 12:30 PM ET. Please note I have adjusted the staking plan. See details in the green box to the right. 5Dimes |
TIPPING STRATEGY
My strategy is based on several different theories, which I
have outlined below. It is also 99% based on numbers. Every play I post is
supported by some form of numbers, not what I think should happen.
1) History repeats itself. The large majority of
tournaments each year are played on the same course. And while the players
change, the stats and power rankings that predict success on each course
typically do not. And this is where trends are helpful. (Trends are very
helpful for tournaments with new courses as well)
• The trends that I
use are specific to each round of each tournament. I use approximately 40
different player stats and approximately 50 different power rankings. These
stats and power rankings are for an 8 week period and a 4 week period, and
are also weighted. The win/loss record of each of these stats and power
rankings are accumulated from the three previous years of each tournament.
The average sample size is no less than a 100 head to head matchups for each
round.
2) It is my belief that individual sports provide
the greatest opportunity for playing underdogs. Therefore, determining which
underdogs have the most value can be highly profitable.
• In regards to golf, if an individual has a bad day, he
does not have any teammates to pick up the slack. In addition, betting lines
for the world’s top players are often grossly inflated in order to balance
the action. And even the world’s top players have bad days or extended
periods of bad play. The models I have created and are continuing to develop
(regression analysis) allow me to find high value underdogs.
3) More to come……
STAKING PLAN
My plays are based upon a percentage of my starting bankroll
each season. They range from 1% to 8%, with the large majority ranging from
3% to 5%. In order to stay consistent with my fellow tipsters here on
TourTips, I have converted my % system to a points system. 1% is equal to
0.5pts. Therefore, a 3% play equals 1.5pts, a 5% play equals 2.5pts, etc.
| 
