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15-2; +20.21pts Pre-tournament plays: LAY 20pts liability Kyle Reifers 140 20th
Bryson DeChambeau 240 38th
Troy Merritt 320 mc
Bud Cauley 320 38th
Ryan Moore 190 48th
Reifers' odds have dropped enorously in the last four weeks - he was 800 for the Players Championship, 270 for the Byron Nelson and 180 last week - and he can be opposed as such low odds; he may have two top-10 finishes in a row, but he has just one win on the Web.com Tour over the last ten years (it was in 2006), and he may have grown up caddying at Muirfield Village, but it hasn't led to good performances here in the past: mc-25th-mc
Entirely predictable that I am opposing DeChambeau again as the pressure mounts as he missed his fourth cut in a row last week - it seems a very long time since he finished 4th in the RBC Heritage
It's 12 months since Merritt won the Quicken Loans National, but he has shown little indication that he is likely to win again (seven missed cut in 12 starts this year) and his record at Muirfield Village - mc-52nd - is also unsupportive of a good week
Was hoping for lower odds on Cauley, but I'll still oppose him as I doubt he will be able to repeat last week's performance in only his second start since returning from injury; finishes of 52nd and 34th in his two previous visits also suggest that a mid-table finish will be a good achievement against this field
Moore has a good history on this course, but he is out-of-form at the moment - the last cut that he made was in the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March and he has been over-par in seven of his last eight rounds Pre-rd3 plays BACK 1pt Gary Woodland 14.5 4th
Brendan Steele 11.5 20th
Woodland hasn't been at the top of his game in 2016 - the form that has seen him since twice on the PGA Tour - but he has missed only one cut since September (16 events) so has been very consistent albeit just below the top of the leaderboard; that winning experience and consistently should earn him lower odds than 14.5 given that he starts the weekend only one shot behind the leaders
Steele is one of those leaders (with Matt Kuchar) and should also be priced lower given that he has also won on the PGA Tour previously; not as consistent as Woodland, but he has two top-15 finishes in his last three starts so has the form to convert this chance LAY 20pts liability Jason Day 9.8 27th
Charl Schwartzel 50 11th
Rory McIlroy 11.5 4th
Jon Curran 110 2nd
Patrick Reed 160 8th
Jordan Spieth 19 57th
Hudson Swafford 190 38th
Dustin Johnson 10.5 3rd
Day has never finished in the top-25 in seven previous visits and is currently outside the top-10; he may be the best player in the world but his history on this course suggests that he shouldn't be priced this low at this positionSchwartzel is also outside the top-10 and five shots off the pace; he does at least have two 8th place finishes here, but he hasn't secured a top-10 finish since the Valspar Championship and I would price him at much higher odds
Opposing another player outside the top-10 at low odds, McIlroy has a best finish of 5th in this event and his approach play so far this week suggests that he will need help from the leaders if he is going to catch them
And now a player in 5th place, apart from the Texas Open, Curran has shown very little form coming into thie event and struggled yesterday, hitting only ten greens in regulation
Reed is in 32nd place and seven shots off the lead; he has far too many 'big name' players to pass to get himself into contention this week
Spieth is one of those 'big name' players, but he is still outside the top-20 and given his poor ball-striking stats this week and indifferent form until last week's event at Colonial, he is another player who should be priced at bigger odds
Without a top-30 finish since January, Swafford is a very easy player to oppose at these odds and currently outside the top-10
Just making the 'oppose' list is Johnson who played poorly yesterday after being the 1st round leader; he has never won a 72-hole event after losing a 1st round lead (five previous occasions) and that is more an issue with his termperament than his ability Pre-rd4 plays: BACK 1pt William McGirt 13 1st
McGirt failed to convert the last time that he held the post-rd3 lead (2014 Northern Trust Open), but he held a two-shot lead on that occasion and this time is under much less pressure with a three-way tie for the lead and Matt Kuchar the favourite with all the pressure; he has been in solid recently with four top-10 finishes already this season and is backed alongside Woodland (tipped yesterday) as the two leaders who should profit if Kuchar shows the same inconsistency with his game that he showed yesterday LAY 20pts liability Emiliano Grillo 14 11th
Grillo won the Frys.com Open in October, but his lack of form - 61st-mc-55th in his last three starts - and subsequent fragile confidence was evident with his play on the 17th hole - he was ready to hit his drive when the official asked him to wait as they were about the blow the horn, he waited, spent the next two hours contemplating that he was the joint leader and returned to pull his drive into the rough and take a double-bogey; he was clearly upset in the post-round interview and that emotion, plus his game when leading the event, make him a player to oppose today |
