14-2; +12.95pts 

Pre-tournament plays:

LAY 20pts liability

Hideki Matsuyama 100  4th
Rory McIlroy 9.2  mc
Johnattan Vegas 210  22nd
Louis Oosthuizen 140  22nd
Billy Horschel 250  79th
David Lingmerth 250  22nd
Easy to oppose Matsuyama who has missed each of his last three cuts and the only time that he has played on the weekend in the last ten weeks was in the no-cut Bridgestone Invitational when he finished 42nd of 59
Happy to oppose McIlroy now that his price has shortened; it has been over a year since he won on the PGA Tour and his sole victory this year was in his home Open and as this is one of the toughest courses that hosts the PGA Championship, it should resemble more a U.S. Open in which he has a poor record over the last five years - these odds are too short 
Vegas should have won two weeks ago and shouln't have won last week, but was helped by Wheatcroft's dramatic collapse over the last three holes; so he is in great form, so surely he will find this too challenging physically and mentally this week
It has been over three months since Oosthuizen secured a top-20 finish and he has a best finish of 15th in this event, so there isn't too much to support Oosthuizen as a likely challenger this week
Horschel was in decent form prior to Royal Troon - making 13 cuts in a row - but he has secured just one top-15 finish in 15 attempts at Majors, so while he may be likely to make the cut again this week, I really can't see him as a potential winner
Lingmerth's form is much worse - his last four rounds have been 82-72-73-75 - and while he has shown that he is capable of purple patches of form, he is not in one at the moment and doesn't look like a likely contender this week.

Pre-rd3 plays:

BACK 1pt

Robert Streb 14.5  7th
Jimmy Walker 8.8  1st
Emiliano Grillo 19  13th
Streb has not been in great form this season, but he did win the McGladrey Classic last season and finished in the top-10 in this event last year, so I would price him at lower odds than this for the current joint-leader
He leads this event with Walker who similarly has not been at the top of his game given that he has won twice in each of the last two seasons on the PGA Tour; that is a signal of his ability to win on this Tour and to deal with the pressure of leading a Major heading into the weekend
Grillo is two shots back in 3rd and I'll back him as well as the market is too heavily favoured to Day and Stenson at the moment; Grillo is another player backed who has won on the PGA Tour - he won the Frys.com Open earlier this season - and has already finished in the top-20 in both Major starts in his career, so can compete under weekend pressure 

LAY 20pts liability

Martin Kaymer 21  4th
Jordan Spieth 24  13th
Branden Grace 110  4th
Patrick Reed 21  13th
Webb Simpson 390  13th
Brooks Koepka 25  4th
Harris English 120  60th
Kaymer is a former winner of this event in 2010, but he is a long way from that player; he has been improving on the European Tour, but has secured a top-10 finish of his last 20 events in the U.S., so I doubt that he will convert this opportunity from four shots off the pace
Spieth is two shots further back than Kaymer yet only a few points higher which would be understandable if he was playing well, but he has struggled for consistency and so is easy to oppose from this position
Grace is a shot further back in 22nd in a very congested leaderboard outside the top-5, that should mean much higher odds IMO despite his good form on this Tour over the past 15 months
Reed is alongside Kaymer and I should similarly price him 10 points higher - he has yet to secure a top-10 finish in a Major Championship and has very rarely looked like winning since his last success in January 2015
Simpson is seven off the pace and deserves to be much higher odds than Grace who is also in 22nd place; I can see nothing in his game that suggests that he will significantly close the gap on the leaders
Koepka has played well this week, but he admitted after rd1 that he wouldn't have played had it not been a major such is the dicomfort with his ankle; that seems a good enough to oppose him this week at these odds
English is a surprising name in 9th place (six shots off the lead) as he has never secured a top-10 finish in a Major Championship and he has shown little form recently to suggest that he may contend this week; a reversion to mean looks likely over the weekend