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10-5; -7.88pts Pre-tournament plays: BACK 2pts Pat Perez 470 & lay 4pts @ 160 mc
The Scottsdale resident has made the cut in seven of the last eight Phoenix Opens, with particular note being two years ago when he was inside the top-5 after each of the first two rounds before finishing 11th. Steve Stricker 270 & lay 4pts @ 95 mc
Not played here since 2009 and he has not been at the top of his game in two starts this year, but this is still a large price for a player of his pedigree and putting ability as this is a course where that part of the game is particulary important. Shawn Stefani 660 & lay 4pts @ 230 mc
Another player not at the top of his game, but the odds more than account for this. He was inside the top-10 after rd1 last year and held the lead in the OHL Classic towards the end of last year, so certainly has the ability to be much better than a 660 shot. LAY liability 20pts Patrick Rodgers 120 17th
Justin Thomas 38 mc
Harold Varner 240 mc
Si-Woo Kim 120 67th
Aaron Baddeley 170 mc
Rodgers is 0-for-1 in cuts made this season and is making his course debut; Thomas did play last year, but hasn't shown enough form this year to warrant such short odds; Varner is another making his course debut and is yet to win either a PGA or Web.com Tour event; Kim's form has ben very good this year and he has won on the Web.com Tour, but without any course experience, the Tour rookie shouldn't be in the top-20 in the market; Baddeley won here 9 years ago and has certainly showed improved form in recent months, but he is still a long way from the player that he was in 2007. Pre-rd3 plays: BACK 2pts James Hahn 9.60 17th
Backing the solo leader at this price. Fowler in 2nd place is a clear favourite, but the top of the leaderboard is quite spread out for 36 holes and Hahn did win the Northern Trust Open last year. With a previous 62 on this course, his position is no fluke. Chad Campbell 85 17th This price is inflated because of Fowler's position, but if he doesn't take early command of this tournament, Campbell looks as good as anyone else in the chasing pack - he is in 7th place, four shots off the pace and leads the event in greens in regulation over the first two rounds. LAY liability 20pts Phil Mickelson 110 11th
J.B. Holmes 150 6th
Brooks Koepka 75 41st
Mickelson and Holames are easy to oppose at those prices being eight shots off the lead in 37th place; Koepka is one shot closer, but the price is much lower because he is defending champion rather than how he has played so far this week, ranking 68th in greens in regulation. Pre-rd4 plays: LAY liability 20pts Gary Woodland 140 33rd
Webb Simpson 140 14th
Kevin Na 120 24th
Three players that are seven shots off the pace and so will need a lot of help from others to even get a chance of victory today. Simpson looks the most likely to do so as he has played the best of these three so far this week - he ranks 3rd in greens in regulation so far, whereas the others are outside the top-25 in that category - but his last win was over two years ago and he held a four-shot lead at the start of the final round. Only one player has won from 7+ shots off the pace during the last three years on the PGA Tour (Smylie Kaufman, 2015 Shriners Hospitals for Children Open). Even with that incredible (and very costly) round by Snedeker last week, he was six shots back at the start of the round and today's weather conditions should be very good. |
