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9-0; +3.77pts Pre-tournament plays: LAY 20pts liability Louis Oosthuizen 85 28th
Russell Knox 65 19th
Jimmy Walker 150 mc
Fabian Gomez 360 74th
John Senden 290 mc
Oosthuizen showed good form in the first three months of the year, but hasn't played since the Masters and his record at Sawgrass suggests that he is not likely to be competitive in his first event back: mc-mc-19th-mc-69th
With one win in 101 PGA Tour events, these odds look rather low for Knox and especially so considering the strength of the field; he has the form to be competitive this week, but he has a record of falling short in much weaker fields than this
It seems a long time since Walker has been in contention in an event and he has never been in contention in this event - the one time that he did finish a round inside the top-10 here (2014, rd4), he has done so from 10 shots off the pace
These may bs big odds for a player who has won twice on the PGA Tour, but Gomez's 9th place finish was his first top-10 in four months and the odds are very much against a course debutant winning: of the last ten winners, only Stenson (2009) won with less than five years's experience here - Stenson played here three times prior to winning
Senden has plenty of experience - he is playing for the 14th consecutive time - but he has secured only one top-20 finish previously and is a common go-against in win-only markets Pre-rd4 plays: LAY 20pts liability Hideki Matsuyama 8.4 7th
Rory McIlroy 140 12th
Matt Kuchar 340 3rd
Danny Lee 340 35th
Matsuyama is 2nd on the leaderboard, but ranks only 23rd in greens in regulation and it has been his putting that has kept him in contention ... that shouldn't be enough for him to close the four-shot lead to Jason Day
In 15th place and nine shots off the pace, McIlroy looks set to finish outside the top-5 yet again this event and should be priced at much higher odds than these
Kuchar is a shot closer and more realistically-priced, but I still see him having virtually no chance of catching Day today
Lee is in the same leaderboard position as Kuchar - outside the top-10 and eight shots off the pace - and I'd priced both as equally unlikely to win |
