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14-1; -3.37pts Pre-tournament plays: LAY 20pts liability Billy Hurley 240 1st
Jason Kokrak 60 29th
Jhonattan Vegas 190 44th
Kyle Reifers 95 44th
Fabian Gomez 330 39th
Hurley has a decent record in this event, but he hasn't secured a top-40 finish since September so he looks very unlikely to contend this year
Kokrak is opposed for the same reason as Hurley: a decent history in this event sees him priced much shorter than he should be in his current form - in his last six starts he has finished mc-mc-wd-55th-mc-37th
Vegas did finish 4th in 2012, but he has missed the cut in each of the last two years and also comes into the event in poor form: 53rd-57th-49th-mc-mc in his last five starts
Reifers is in better form, but he still missed the cut by six shots last time out in the St Jude Classic and a record of mc-46th on this course does not suggest that he will be value at double-digit odds
Back to players out of form - Gomez has finished 74th-wd-mc-mc in his last four starts and missed the cut here last year Pre-rd3 plays; BACK 1pt Billy Hurley 9.2 1st
Hurley's local knowledge - he lives only 45 mins away from Congressional - has earned him a couple of top-10 finishes here and he is now shares a three-shot lead over the rest of the field with Rahm in his first professional event. Hurley's experience as well as local connections should put him in a good position to deal with the pressure of leading over the weekend and these are large odds given such a lead over Vijay Singh in 3rd place and everyone else at least a shot further back. LAY 20pts liability Rickie Fowler 9.8 44th
Charley Hoffman 85 57th
Bill Haas 13 3rd
Harold Varner 21 7th
Kevi Chappell 85 44th
Kevin Streelman 160 12th
Lucas Glover 140 29th
Daniel Summerhays 170 21st
Five shots back and in 8th place, it is a surprise to see single-figure odds on Fowler - he has missed his last three cuts so his game doesn't look like it will be near-perfect over the weekend to close this gap without the help of the leaders
Back in 25th position, eight shots off the leaders and ranked only 71st in greens in regulation over the first two rounds, Hoffman should be at much higher odds than this
Haas is much closer to the lead in 4th place and four shots back and he is a former winner of this event in 2013, but he hasn't secured a top-40 finish in any of his last five starts so isn't playing well enough to warrant these odds in his current position
Varner is alsongside Haas in 4th place, but he has never won a Tour event - his best finish on the PGA Tour is 5th - and he ranks outside the top-40 in greens in regulation so far this week, so his ball-striking does not suggest two good rounds over the weekend
Chappell is alongside Hoffman in 25th place and eight shots off the lead, so he is another who is opposed at double-digit odds as not showing the form recently to suggest that he could make such a large move up the leaderboard this weekend
The same can be said for Streelman who is also in 25th place and is yet to secure a top-10 finish in six previous attempts in this event
Glover has achieved one top-10 finish in eight attempts in this event, but is another player opposed in 25th place - it will take two near-flawless rounds to have a chance of winning from this position and I like the odds of that not happening
And one more in 25th place - Summerhays is seeking his first win on the PGA Tour and will need to have been much closer to the lead to have a realistic chance Pre-rd4 plays: LAY 20pts liability Webb Simpson 11.5 6th
Simpson has played well this week, but these odds are too short for a player five shots off the lead at the start of the final round; he has won four times on Tour, but none were as far back after 54 holes as this situation and the last time that he won was back in 2013 ... in fact he has just one top-10 finish in the last ten months, so there is suffient reason to oppose him at these odds, |
