13-1; -11.68pts 

Pre-tournament plays:

LAY 20pts liability

Brian Gay 210  mc
Zach Johnson 42  mc
Michael Thompson 180  13th
Jim Furyk 42  6th
Bobby Wyatt 300  mc
Gay has struggled since returning to the Tour after a lengthy injury period - he is on a Major Medical Extension - and even those he closed with 64 on Sunday to finish 28th, it was only his 2nd top-30 finish since January 2014 so four good rounds in a row looks very unlikely
Johnson lives on St Simons Island, but he has a poor record in this event so looks underpriced, particularly as this is also his first Tour start since the BMW Championship ten weeks ago
Thompson does have a good record in this event - he recorded top-10 finishes in 2011 and 2012 - but that was a long time ago; more recently Thompson has finished 66th and mc in the last two years and has missed his last four cuts
Like Johnson, Furyk has tumbled down the World Rankings this year, but this was due to a wrist injury that forced him out from September to May; he then returned to the Tour after a ten-week delay last week and missed the cut so he is one to oppose particularly as he has skipped this event in each of the last three years
Wyatt hasn't made much impression yet in his rookie PGA Tour season - he has finishes of mc-57th-mc to date - and was mdf last year so there is little reason to suppose that this week will be any different

Pre-rd3 plays:

LAY 20pts liability

Patrick Rodgers 160  10th
Hudson Swafford 19  36th
Mackenzie Hughes 9.2  1st
Kyle Stanley 32  21st
Rodgers' odds are rather low for a player in 26th place, six shots off the pace and with only one top-10 finish in the last 12 months
Swafford is another player who has struggled to record top-10 finishes - just one in the last two years - so it looks rather unlikely that he will even maintain his current 3rd place position
Hughes has recorded three top-10 finishes on the Web.com Tour this year, but he is without one in eight starts on the PGA Tour and while he leads this event, he has only led one Tour event at this stage previously and he failed to hold onto the lead for very long in that lowly Canadian Tour event, so this should be a difficult weekend for Hughes
Stanley is another with only one top-10 finish in the last 12 months, so even though he is 7th and only four shot behind, he remains to be proven from this position, at least in recent years

Pre-rd4 plays:

LAY 20pts liability

Camilo Villegas 7.2  2nd
Morgan Hoffmann 180  65th
Charles Howell 17  13th
Henrik Norlander 70  2nd
Bill Haas 65  13th
Villegas is 2nd after rd3, but will be under a lot of pressure as he is only playing this season via the Past Champion exemption category, so he needs to convert this opportunity to fully return to the Tour; it is also rather difficult the day after shooting the low round of the day, so I would price him a little higher than this
Hoffmann is further back in 12th place and five shots off the lead - considering that he has missed his last three cuts and missed the cut on both previous visits to Sea Island, this has been a week that has far exceeded expectations so to maintain his current position would be a very good achievement
These are rather short odds for Howell who is 6th and three shots back - yes, he is very good form, but the fact that he was closing in on the lead for 11 holes, but then shot 1-over-par for the last seven holes when Hughes came back to field, shows how he has struggled to convert his winning chances
It will be a good day if Norlander can keep his current top-10 position - he is only playing this week as a sponsor invite and is easily the lowest ranked player in the World Rankings (441st) in the current top-10
Haas is alongside Hoffmann and outside the top-10 and even though he is only five shots off the lead, this is a very congested leaderboard with 18 players within 5 shots of Mackenzie so it will take an extremely low round to put himself in position to have a chance of winning this event