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Betfair Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds:Betfair (external)

 

Odds: Betfair Summary

Safeway Open
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7-0; +2.23pts 

Pre-tournament plays:

LAY 20pts liability

Jon Rahm 32  15th
Aaron Wise 180  mc
Justin Thomas 24  8th
Bryson DeChambeau 85  mc
Daniel Summerhays 120  mc
No previous course history and not played since missing the cut in the Wyndham Championship in August - these are not the characteristics of a player at odds to laof 32, so Rahm looks a player to oppose this week even though he is a very good prospect for the future
Wise finished 4th on the Mackenzie Tour's Order of Merit and so has conditional status on the Web.com Tour this season - the 20-year-old may be aa good player to look for on that Tour, but this is another step up in level and I can't see him competing at this level yet
Thomas is proven at this level, reaching the Tour Championship in September and finishing 3rd here last year, but he is not in the same form as 12 months ago or even earlier this year - he has just four top-10 finishes since March (19 starts) - so can be opposed at 5th place in the market
One day DeChambreau will stop being a 'future star' and there won't be the value in opposing him - he did win the DAP Championship on the Web.com Tour last month but has missed the cut in both events since that win
Finishes of 46th and 32nd in the two years that this course has hosted this event do not suggest that Summerhays is a likely contender this week, nor does his current run of mc-mc-mc-68th (of 69) in his last four starts

 

Pre-rd4 plays

LAY 20pts liability

Bill Haas 200  20th
Cody Gribble 210  8th
Opposing Haas who is six shots off the pace and his ball-striking is not strong enough to mount a challenge today - he ranks 46th in strokes gained - tee to green so far this week
Gribble is a shot closer, but he is also not playing well enough - he ranks 33rd in strokes gained - tee to green so far this week, so given that he hasn't even won on the Web.com Tour, he looks extremely unlikely to win today