9-0; +4.28pts Pre-tournament plays: LAY 20pts liability Nick Watney 130 mc Jon Rahm 28 15th Jimmy Walker 40 mc Mackenzie Hughes 230 68th Martin Laird 40 27th Watney finished 35th in the Safeway Open - his first event in over nine months as he recovered from a hernated disc in his lower back - and has a good record in this event, but I still don't see him as a contender after such a long injury layoff Rahm is certainly a contender - he has three top-5 finishes in 13 PGA Tour starts - but he is still only 21 and making only his 2nd start as a PGA Tour Card-carrying member, that points to higher odds than this Walker may have won the PGA Championship in July, but he played poorly in the Ryder Cup winning once and losing twice and he finishes last in the HSBC Champions last week Winning the Price Cutter Charity Championship earned Hughes his PGA Tour Card via the Web.com Money List, but he had shown no form in the first six months of 2016, missing 9 of 14 cuts and a best finish of 30th, which suggests that even though he has shown enough form to finish in the top-30 in both PGA Tour events this season, that form will not last Laird recorded a top-10 finish in his first start of the season and is a former winner in 2009 and lost out in a playoff in 2010, however he has struggled to repeat that form since, finishing 40th-mc-18th-43rd, so I would make his odds nearer 60 than 40. Pre-rd4 plays: LAY 20pts liability Adam Hadwin 38 27th Geoff Ogilvy 16 4th Kyle Stanley 130 7th Brian Harman 85 15th Hadwin has been within three shots of the lead at the start of the final on three previous occasions on the PGA Tour since 2015 on those occasions he has shot 74-72-74 in the final round to show that he is a player to oppose when in this position in the final round Ogilvy is a shot closer in 4th place, but this is only the third time in the last five years that he has been inside the top-5 at the start of the final round on the PGA Tour - such contention-rustiness and the fact that he has missed the cut in both events this season suggest that he may struggle to maintain this surprising form It's a very crowded leaderboard with 20 players within four shots of the lead and Stanley is one of those four shots behind so he should be long odds to even record his first top-5 finish on the PGA Tour in over three years Harman is alongside Stanley and while he deserves to be lower odds based on ability over the last few years, he has played poorly this week, ranking outside the top-40 for driving distance, driving accuracy, greens in regulation, as well strokes gained approaches and strokes gained around the green - there is little here to suggest that he is playing well enough to shoot a very low score and challenge for this title |
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