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6-1; -12.56pts Pre-tournament plays: LAY 20pts liability Patrick Reed 25 24th
Si-Woo Kim 90 10th
Rory McIlroy 8.8 1st
Emiliano Grillo 44 10th
Only one player finished behind Reed last year and he managed only 19th (of 30) in previous year, his only other visits to East Lake, which suggests that this course does not suit his game, so a 10th consecutive top-25 finish looks highly likely, but not a win
Kim is playing because of his win in the Wyndham Championship as he hasn't looked like winning again during the Playoffs, so an easy player to oppose this week
McIlroy won the Deutsche Bank Championship, but his other finishes in his last four events read mc-31st-42nd, so I'm not convinced that he should be 2nd favourite this week and should be at least one point higher
Grillo is another making his debut and even though he won the season-opening Frys.com Open, he has secured just one other top-10 finish on the PGA Tour this season, so is another easy player to oppose this week Pre-rd3 plays: LAY 20pts liability Paul Casey 21 4th
Casey is certainly in very good form - he has finished 2nd in the last two Playoff events, but there lies the problem: it has been over seven years since his sole victory on the PGA Tour and while he may continue to play well and even narrow the five-shot gap on the leader, these odds are rather short that he will finally win again on this Tour. Pre-rd4 plays: LAY 20pts liability Kevin Chappell 6.4 2nd
Hideki Matsuyama 17.5 5th
A three-shot swing on the penultimate hole has resulted in Chappell being an unlikely co-leader at the start of the final round, but history suggests that he will not stay there today: he is 0-for-2 when leading after 54 holes on the PGA Tour and 0-for-2 when leading after 54 holes on the Web.com Tour; the last time that he held the lead after 54 holes - 2015 Quicken Loans National - he shot 77 to finish 10 shots behind the winner
Matsuyama fell back to 5th place yesterday, but it could have been much worse after he triple-bogeyed the 14th hole; however, I'd still price him five points higher at three back from the co-leaders and McIlroy ahead of him, so I'll oppose him in this round |
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