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11-0; +2.78pts Pre-tournament plays: LAY 20pts liability K.J. Choi 50 62nd
Patrick Rodgers 220 mc
John Senden 120 mc
Troy Merritt 180 mc
Blayne Barber 200 42nd
Good form in the first couple of months of the year and a win here in 2006 make Choi's odds shorter, but during his recent good form he has also shown why he can be counted upon to not convert his winning chances at this stage in his career; Rodgers is easy to oppose as he is making his course debut and is only 1-for-4 in cuts made in 2016; Senden won here two years ago, but his 10th place finish in the Honda Classic was his first top-10 finish since May 2015 and his best finish in five starts in 2016 before Doral was 42nd; Merritt is far from being the player that finished 6th last year - he has made only one cut in 2016; while Barber is another who had looked a pale reflection of his 2015 self until Doral, but his performance last year when finishing ahead of only seven players suggests that he will struggle to retain his one-week form. Pre-rd3 plays: LAY 20pts liability Jordan Spieth 36 18th
Jason Dufner 80 22nd
Louis Oosthuizen 50 7th
He may be the World #1, but Spieth is not playing like it - he has been uncompetitive since winning the year-opening event, ranks outside the top-100 in greens in regulation so far this week and is 43rd after 36 holes; Dufner is another who won at the start of the year and has been nowhere near winning again and that the same this week - he is 33rd after 36 holes; while Oosthuizen completes a trio of players who have won this year, but he is still five shots back and has 22 players to pass, so I think that it is very unlikely that he won from this position and on a course where he has missed the last three cuts. Pre-rd4 plays: LAY 20pts liability Danny Lee 230 wd
Danny Willett 300 22nd
Henrik Stenson 40 11th
Opposing two players who are too far back to feature and one who would need a career round to win and the odds against that happening are good relative to the lay odds available. Lee is seven shots off the pace and back in 19th place and, given that he ranks outside the top-50 in greens in regulation, it is clear that he is not playing well enough to close this gap significantly; Willett is playing better this week and finished 3rd in the Cadillac Championship, but he is a shot further back in 23rd and realistically has far too much to do today to even reach another top-5 finish; while Stenson is the closest of the three in 9th position, but he is still six shots off the pace and so will need a lot of help from Haas, which I think he is unlikely to get - Haas has pulled ahead of the field in each of the last two occasions that he has held the rd3 lead: 2013 AT&T National, he shot 66 in rd4; 2015 Humana Challenge, he shot 67 in rd4. |
