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Overall: 14-11 (+3.475) RD 4: 3-3 (+.75)
12:25 PM ET Steele +100 over Casey 2pts W
1:05 PM ET Langley +100 over Loupe 2pts L
1:15 PM ET Castro -120 over Hahn 2.5pts L
All supported by strong fourth round trends. That's it. Let's have a great day!!
5Dimes RD 4: 11:55 AM ET Berger +105 over Matsuyama 2.5pts L
12:05 PM ET Hadley -115 over Hubbard 2.5pts W
12:45 PM ET Gomez +125 over Glover 3pts W
All supported by strong fourth round trends.
5Dimes Typo fixed on Senden over Harman RD 3: 4-3 (+2.6) 12:50 PM ET Senden -125 over Harman 2.5pts W
12:50 PM ET Rose +105 over Fowler 2pts L
1:10 PM ET Berger +110 over Mickelson 3pts W
All supported by strong third round trends.
5Dimes RD 3:
11:40 AM ET Glover -120 over English 3.5pts W
11:40 AM ET Varner -125 over Overton 2pts W
12:00 PM ET Kizzire -110 over Steele 2pts L Glover supported by undefeated third round trend. Varner and Kizzire supported by strong third round trends.
5Dimes RD 3: 10:50 AM ET McIlroy -150 over Scott 3pts L
Supported by strong third round trends. 5Dimes RD 2 Afternoon: 4-4 (-4.625)
12:50 PM ET Streelman +100 over Thomas 2pts Push
12:50 PM ET Casey -185 over Harrington 1.5pts W
1:10 PM ET Cejka -110 over Jones 2.5pts Push
1:10 PM ET McIlroy -140 over Fowler 1.5pts L
1:20 PM ET Reed -130 over Furyk 1.5pts W
1:20 PM ET Ogilvy -115 over Villegas 3.5pts L
All supported by strong second round trends.
5Dimes RD 2:
7:40 AM ET Kaymer +100 over English 3pts L
Supported by undefeated second round trend.
BetOnline RD 2:
7:40 AM ET Donald -200 over Every 1.5pts W 7:50 AM ET Holmes +110 over Mickelson 1.5pts L 8:00 AM ET Rose -130 over Scott 2.5pts Push 8:00 AM ET Moore -130 over N Taylor 1.5pts W All supported by strong second round trends.
BetOnline RD 1 Afternoon: 3-1 (+4.75pts)
1:30 PM ET Grillo +100 over Kisner 2pts W
Supported by very strong first round trends. That's it.
5Dimes RD 1 Afternoon:
1:20 PM ET Rose -115 over Scott 3pts W
Supported by very strong first round trends.
5DimesRD 1 Afternoon: 1:00 PM ET Kaymer +100 over English 2pts Push Supported by strong first round trends. More coming.
5Dimes RD 1:
7:30 AM ET Streelman +100 over Thomas 2pts W
7:50 AM ET McIlroy -150 over Fowler 1.5pts L 8:00 AM ET Ogilvy -120 over Villegas 3pts Push All supported by strong first round trends.
5Dimes |
TIPPING STRATEGY
My strategy is based on several different theories, which I
have outlined below. It is also 99% based on numbers. Every play I post is
supported by some form of numbers, not what I think should happen.
1) History repeats itself. The large majority of
tournaments each year are played on the same course. And while the players
change, the stats and power rankings that predict success on each course
typically do not. And this is where trends are helpful. (Trends are very
helpful for tournaments with new courses as well)
• The trends that I
use are specific to each round of each tournament. I use approximately 40
different player stats and approximately 50 different power rankings. These
stats and power rankings are for an 8 week period and a 4 week period, and
are also weighted. The win/loss record of each of these stats and power
rankings are accumulated from the three previous years of each tournament.
The average sample size is no less than a 100 head to head matchups for each
round.
2) It is my belief that individual sports provide
the greatest opportunity for playing underdogs. Therefore, determining which
underdogs have the most value can be highly profitable.
• In regards to golf, if an individual has a bad day, he
does not have any teammates to pick up the slack. In addition, betting lines
for the world’s top players are often grossly inflated in order to balance
the action. And even the world’s top players have bad days or extended
periods of bad play. The models I have created and are continuing to develop
(regression analysis) allow me to find high value underdogs.
3) More to come……
STAKING PLAN
My plays are based upon a percentage of my starting bankroll
each season. They range from 1% to 8%, with the large majority ranging from
3% to 5%. In order to stay consistent with my fellow tipsters here on
TourTips, I have converted my % system to a points system. 1% is equal to
0.5pts. Therefore, a 3% play equals 1.5pts, a 5% play equals 2.5pts, etc.
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