11-0; +5.20pts 

Pre-tournament plays:

LAY 20pts liability

Thomas Pieters 44  mc
Brandt Snedeker 55  28th
Tony Finau 60  28th
Zach Johnson 70  66th
Kevin Kisner 80  2nd
Pieters has shown some glimpses of form recently with two top-5 finishes (to go with two missed cuts and a 23rd place finish this year), but he failed to break 70 in any round last year and finished last of those who made the cut. Given that accuracy is far more important than distance off the tee at Bay Hill, such a performance wasn't unexpected, but such odds this year are
Snedeker has similar current-course form - he has played well this year without winning, but has a poor record on this course: just one top-10 finish in 10 attempts is a poor record for a player ranked #24 in the World
And another with the same current-course form profile - like Pieters, Finau's length off the tee is not an advantage on this course and so he has struggled to finish mc-43rd in his two previous visits
With a very different profile, Johnson has played well here in the past with five top-10 finishes in 13 previous visits to Bay Hill, but he has shown little sign of form since the Sony Open in Hawaii so is opposed on that basis
Back to the previous profile of players opposed, Kisner has finished 49th-mc in his two previous appearances here; in terms of recent form, he hasn't seriously contended for a title since his purple patch of form in late 2015 - early 2016 and when he has been in contention since then, he has struggled to stay there, e.g. shooting 76 when 3rd in the 2016 Tour Championship or shooting 77 when 8th in the Honda Classic three weeks ago

Pre-rd3 plays:

LAY 20pts liability

Matthew Fitzpatrick 8.6  13th
Jeung-Hun Wang 50  23rd
Charl Schwartzel 280  45th
A final round 67 in last year's Masters Tournament saw Fitzpatrick jump from 23rd to finish 7th, but he has no other top-15 finishes in 14 other starts in the U.S. so I'm not confident that he is ready to convert this chance - he lies 3rd after 36 holes and is two shots off the pace
Wang posseses even less evidence that he can be competitive on this Tour and ranking 59th in strokes gained - approaches so far this week, he has shown little evidence that he can close the five-shot gap to Hoffman
That gap is nine shots for Schwartzel and while he does have a much better history on this Tour, he has avoided this event since 2011 leaving his finishes on this course as 52nd-47th - that doesn't suggest that he will break the course record in either round to get himself into contention

Pre-rd4 plays:

LAY 20pts liability

Kyle Stanley 95  17th
Greg Chalmers 220  17th
Harold Varner 280  34th
Stanley may be in 8th place and five shots behind the leaders, but he doesn't look like a player who could jump out of the pack - he had missed the cut in three of four previous visits to Bay Hill, he has finished in the top-10 in any Tour just once since the end of 2015 and he ranks outside the top-25 so far this week in all the key ball-striking stats
Chalmers is alongside Stanley in 8th place, but is justifiably much higher odds - his last seven finishes read: mc-mc-mc-mc-mc-57th-mc. Such a loss form means added pressure today and that tends not to lead to an improvement in performance
Varner is a shot further back in 11th place and he is in the same vein of form as Chalmers - his seven finishes this year read: mc-mc-mc-68th-mc-57th-mc.