5-5; -4.23pts

Pre-tournament plays:

BACK 1pt

Rickie Fowler 17  2nd
Hideki Matsuyama 18.5  47th
A 4th place finish in the last time that Conway Farms was used is a good indicator for Fowler's ability to perform on this course and there is no denying the uplift in his game this year after a poor 2016
Matsuyama was ranked 1st in the FedEx Cup standing coming into the Playoffs and while he hasn't played as well during the last two events, he certainly warranted short odds and particularly on a course where he finished 7th last time out

LAY 20pts liability

Jordan Spieth 7.4  7th
Dustin Johnson 11  33rd
Second place finishes in both Playoff events puts Spieth at the top of the FedEx Cup standings and a justifiable favourite this week, but these odds deserve something better than a course history in which he has finished nine and eleven shots behind the winner
Johnson finished nine shots behind Day two years ago (and 62nd in 2013) and while he is hte defending champion, that was a different course, so I'd price him at higher odds given that he is still some way short of his most consistent golf
 

Pre-rd3 plays:

BACK 1pt

Marc Leishman 3.1  1st
Patrick Cantlay 26  9th
Francesco Molinari 60  12th
Leishman let me down last time out when backed at 25 and leading by two at the start of the back nine on Sunday, but his form can't be denied as he leads by three and is worth an insurance play; I would price him a little lower
In 4th place, but six shots back is Cantlay who is in good form with top-15 finishes in both Playoff events so far and is playing well this week - he ranks 3rd in greens in regulation - if Leishman does drop back, Cantlay will be in a good position at a good price to profit; again I would price him a little lower
Molinari is a shot further back in 5th place and I would price him much lower; he was 2nd in the PGA Championship last month and has contended plenty of times previously on this Tour, so these odds look good on him to get his second PGA Tour title (he won the 2010 HSBC Champions)

LAY 20pts liability

Rickie Fowler 4.0  2nd
Jason Day 4.4  4th
Fower is 2nd and three shots back, but I'm closing out the bet for a small loss as he hasn't looked particularly convincing apart from holes 12-17 where he 11-under-par for those 12 holes across the two rounds - he is only 2-under-par for the other 24 holes. Given his play over the full 36 holes, I would price him a little higher
Day is also 2nd and three shots back, but I'd price him in excess of 5.0 - he change of caddy has clearly worked so far this week, but his ball-striking does not fit with his leaderboard position - he ranks 44th in greens in regulation so far this week -  and has been struggling with his back at times this week; he won on this course two years ago, but there is little to suggest that his form is near the level when he won 

Pre-rd4 play:

LAY 20pts liability

Marc Leishman 1.45  1st
With a five-shot lead, Leishman deserves to be a very strong favourite to win this event, but I still wouldn't price him this low. He held a two-shot lead with nine holes to play in the last event and shot 40 on the back nine to finish 3rd, so if either Day or Fowler can get to within three shots by the turn, this will be a real test of his nerves after that collapse last time out. The value play has to be opposing Leishman in this event which will lead to a small loss on the event if he converts and a bumper payout if he doesn't.