14-2; +6.33pts

Pre-tournament plays:

BACK 1pt

Nick Taylor 190 (& lay 1pt in-running @ 150) MATCHED  61st
Taylor has already won a PGA Tour event - the 2014 Sanderson Farms Championship - and is in very good form with top-10 finishes in his last two starts; he was inside the top-10 at the start of the final round two years ago and could do so the same again in his current vein of form

LAY 20pts liability

Adam Hadwin 48  53rd
Bud Cauley 50  41st
Zach Johnson 60  63rd
Brian Harman 65  7th
Chris Kirk 85  67th
Hadwin's form has dipped since March, so these odds look a little low in my opinion
Cauley's form is much better - he has recorded four consecutive top-10 finishes, but he has yet to finish either 1st or 2nd on the PGA Tour, so I'm happy to oppose at these odds based on his form rather than his conversion rate
Johnson's form is quite the opposite - in his last six strokeplay events, he has finished 58th-66th-mc-mc-18th-48th - so even though he is a two-time champion here (2010, 2012), it looks rather unlikely that he will be able to find his game of previous years to contend here
Always happy to oppose a player who won recently as that drives down their odds much more than any usual strong performance or a run of high finishes; Harman finished 53rd in his next event after winning the Wells Fargo Championship and a player who has 88 starts between wins is extremely  unlikely to win two in three starts
Opposing another former winner (2015) in Kirk who has finished in the top-50 just once in his last eight starts, missing the cut five times

Pre-rd3 plays:

LAY 20pts liability

Jon Rahm 6,8  2nd
Danny Lee 12.5  6th
Jonas Blixt 180  18th
Meen-Whee Kim 310  34th
Kelly Kraft 310  18th
This is not typically a course that suits long-hitters - only once has the winner ranked inside the top-10 for driving distance that week (Mickelson, 2008) - and Rahm's aggressive strategy worked on Thursday, but not so much yesterday; he is only one shot out of the lead, but that aggression will surely cost him at some stage over the weekend
This will be Lee's first time as a 36-hole leader on the PGA Tour; on the Web.com Tour, he was 0-for-3 and failed to break 70 in either rd3 or rd4 when leading after rd2 so that suggests that he will struggle under today's pressure
Blixt won the Zurich Classic of New Orleans in April, but he hasn't had any other top-15 finishes since February 2016 so being 20th after 36 holes represents a better-than-expected effort so far
Kim is a shot closer, but having missed six cuts in a row prior to this event, there is a lot of pressure to make the most of this current 11th place position with regard to keeping his Tour Card; very few players' game respond well under such pressure
Kraft has similarly been in very poor form, missing the cut in five of his last six starts, but he led the event after day 1; on day 2 he struggled around the course and is now 11th while his recent form suggests a bounceback is unlikely

Pre-rd4 plays:

BACK 1pt

Paul Casey 5.3  10th
Stewart Cink 23  10th
It has been over three years since Simpson last held a 54-hole lead and his form is far from consistent, so the two-shot lead over Casey looks very small; in very consistent form, I would price Casey almost a whole point lower
I would price Cink a few points lower so there should be value in these odds for a player in 4th place and only three shots off the lead; there have been some veteran winners of this event and the 44-year-old would fit that bill, but he has also played very well this week, raning 4th in greens in regulation so far

LAY 20pts liability

Sergio Garcia 34  12th
Bill Haas 75  12th
Scott Piercy 80  7th
Graeme McDowell 390  29th
Garcia is in prime form, is a former winner here and is the highest-ranked player in this field (#6 World Rankings), but he is five shots back and ranks 66th (of 72) in strokes gained - around the green, so it is clear why he hasn't managed to stay close to the top of the leaderboard so far
Haas is also in 8th place, but is justifiably priced much higher having missed his last three cuts and securing only one top-10 finish in seven previous attempts here
It is a similar story with Piercy - he has missed three of his last four cuts and has a best finish of 26th in five previous attempts, so doesn't look to be most likely player to close that five-shot gap
The gap is seven shots for McDowell and any player is hasn't made a top-10 finish in over seven months is worth opposing from such a position