11-1; -17.70pts 

Pre-tournament plays:

BACK 1pt

Sergio Garcia 18.5  14th
Backing him to win again after he won the Dubai Desert Classic. His off-course happiness was cited as an indicator that he is likely to play well that week and that also holds this week as doubts over his previous fragility when leading were erased with his performance in Dubai. He finished 8th three years ago (just three shots off the winning score) and was involved in a fantastic head-to-head battle with Adam Scott last year on this course that heavily favours players who play well in wind and in Major Championships.

LAY 20pts liability

Rickie Fowler 18  1st
Zack Johnson 55  27th
Jimmy Walker 60  21st
Russell Henley 60  43rd
Keegan Bradley 60  mc
Fowler has made five cuts in a row here, including 7th in 2012 and 6th last year but that doesn't equate to Garcia's course form. He has finished 36th in Abu Dhabi, missed the cut in the Farmers Insurance Open and shot a low final round score to jump to 4th in the Phoenix Open, so his current form doesn't match Garcia either, so nor should his price
Johnson has struggled here, finishing 30th, 33rd, mc, mc in his four previous visits while his West Coast form doesn't suggest that a major reversal of form here is imminent
Walker is another who has struggled here with a best finish of 38th in six attempts and his form is also not supportive of a reversal - he has finished outside the top-50 in three of five events in 2017
Henley is at least a former winner here (2014) and thus he get a much lower price this week - he was 110 for his last event - but it has been two years since he has looked like converting one of his many top-25 finishes into wins, so I'll take on this much lower price this week
Bradley played well here between 2012 and 2014, but has missed the cut in the last two years as he has struggled to adapt to the short putter and I will oppose him for the second week in a row on that basis

Pre-rd3 plays:

BACK 1pt 

Cheng-Tsung Pan 38  37th
Pan has finished inside the top-5 after each of the first two rounds, showing again that he can play well under pressure. He did that notably in the Farmers Insurance Open last month when finishing 2nd, so these odds look a little for someone  in this position.

LAY 20pts liability

Adam Scott 26  14th
Martin Kaymer 27  4th
Scott Stallings 80  21st
Sergio Garcia 95  14th
Jason Dufner 95  14th
Scott may be the defending champion, but he is in 17th place, six shots back and has struggled off the tee so far this week - he ranks 137th in driving accuracy over the first two rounds and will to be much more accurate if he to challenge for this title
Kaymer is a couple of shots closer, but he has never shown any form on this course previously and, like Scott, has struggled for accuracy off the tee. I think that he has played as well as he can so far this week and he is not in a winning position
Stallings is alongside Kaymer and looks to record his third top-15 finish of 2017. but he ranks 91st in greens in regulation so far this week so he is another player who will need to play much better over the weekend if he is close the gap on the leaders
Closing out the bet on Garcia. He held a share of the lead after 13 holes of his first round, but found water on the par-3 to record a double-bogey and hasn't looked like getting back to the top of the leaderboard since. For a player in 48th place, these odds are too short not to try and claim back part of the initial back stake
Dufner is alongside Scott and six shots off the pace. His ball-striking stats this week, form in recent weeks and on this course previously all suggest that he is very unlikely to mount a challenge from this far back. 

Pre-rd4 plays:

LAY 20pts liability

Sean O'Hair 48  11th
Kevin Kisner 85  48th
O'Hair hasn't won an event on any Tour from six shots back so I like these odds on him not doing so again. If he did manage to finish in the top-10, that would be the first time in ten attempts in this event, so doesn't look like the most likely challenger to Fowler
Kisner is a shot further back and so needs to much a seven-shot deficit to the leader. He has played well so far this year, but his ball-striking has still been poor this week - ranks 38th in greens in regulation and 30th in strokes gained - approaches. Like O'Hair. his previous record here isn't great - 51st-70th - so there isn't even evidence to convince that he will be Fowler's main rival today