11-2; -17.29pts

Pre-tournament plays:

BACK 1pt

Kevin Chappell 200 (& lay 1pt @ 125)  44th
Starting the year with new clubs would always take some time before he could find full form and there have been signs of it recently - he was 6th after three rounds at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He is a player who finished 6th here in 2013, lost out only in a playoff for the Tour Championship six months ago and ranks 43rd in the World Rankings. He is certainly a player who should hit lower odds during the event even if he hasn't shown enough form with his new clubs to win under pressure in the final round.

LAY 20pts liability

Patrick Reed 48  mc
Jhonattan Vegas 90  15th
Peter Uihlein 95  23rd
Nick Watney 100  mc
Ryan Palmer 120  mc
Reed has two good finishes here - 10th and 17th - but he has shown very little form since January, including a poor performance last week when he previously had a reputation for being a strnog matchplayer - this form puts him at higher odds for me
Vegas has been in better form recently and is a University of Texas graduate, but that hasn't helped previously in this event with finishes of mc-47th-72nd-55th-19th in his last five visits
Uihlein is in even better form with a 5th place finish in the Puerto Rico Open last week as well as other high finishes in South Africa and India recently, but that still shouldn't make him a double-digit odds player against this field and on a course where missed the cut in his one previous visit
Finishes of 14th-28th-14th-14th in his last four starts represents a very productive spell on the PGA Tour where is playing on a Major Medical Extension, so he may well secure another good purse, but he is still a long way from securing his first Tour win since 2012
Palmer is a player out of form, sitting 196th in the FedEx Cup standings; with just one top-10 finish in 11 previous Houston Opens, it looks unlikely that he will significantly improve his FedEx Cup ranking this week

Pre-rd3 plays:

LAY 20pts liability

Russell Henley 7.2  1st
Hudson Swafford 12  6th
Stewart Cink 90  23rd
Zac Blair 90  8th
Charles Howell 420  39th
I would price Henley at least one point higher than this - he is six shots back and has relied on his putter to get him into this position - he ranks 48th in strokes gained - approaches and 103rd in strokes gained - around the green, so will need to play much better if he is to close this gap
It's a similar issue with Swafford who is alongside Henley in 2nd place - he ranks 35th in strokes gained - approaches and 93rd in strokes gained - around the green; he did win in January, but he shown very little form since and does not have a good record on this course
Nine shots back and with just one top-5 finish since June 2013, there is ample reason to think that Cink won't win from this position
Given that Blair is eight shots back and has one top-5 finish since August 2015, there is also ample reason to expect Blair not to be a challenger from this position; ranking 75th in greens in regulation over the first two rounds is yet another
Howell is a good player to oppose in win-only markets when in contention, so there appears to be very little downside to opposing him from 13 shots back; his ball-striking so far this week also suggests that he won't make any significant inroads into this lead - he also ranks 75th in greens in regulation

Pre-rd4 plays:

LAY 20pts liability

Daniel Berger 230  5th
Kyle Stanley 280  8th
Both players are nine shots back and even if Kang does falter, I can;t see Fowler faltering as well. From this position, both would need career rounds and poor rounds from both Kang and Fower. I like the odds on this not happening.