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23-1; +2.90pts Pre-tournament plays: LAY 20pts liability Ben Martin 65 39th
William McGirt 70 71st
Kelly Kraft 70 64th
Michael Kim 160 71st
Chris Stroud 170 19th
Maverick McNealy 170 44th
Sebastian Munoz 170 mc
Brian Gay 230 mc
Peter Malnati 230 44th
Andres Romero 240 25th
Billy Hurley 300 68th
Dominic Bozzelli 300 25th
Martin finished 2nd in this event last year and so starts at lower odds than usual for the World #193, but given that he has only achieved one top-10 finish since that event, these odds looks still too low for me
With out a top-20 finish in five attempts on this course or in the last three months, McGirt is a player to oppose at the moment
Kraft finished 5th last year and 5th last week, but he has been extremely erratic this year, missing more cuts than he has made, so I doubt that this will be one occasion when he finally manages to record back-to-back top-10 finishes on any of the main Tours
The rest are players who are available at triple-digit odds, but I would still price higher Pre-rd3 plays: BACK 1pt Kevin Kisner 13.5 44th
Kisner is the highest-ranked player in this field in terms of the FedEx Cup standings and the 2nd-highest in terms of World Rankings (24th; the current leader is 179th), so he has the pedigree to make a strong challenge over the weekend and he is only five shots back in 9th place. His form is good - he won the Dean & Deluca Invitational seven weeks ago - and he is playing very well this week - he ranks 2nd in strokes gained - tee-to-green so far this week, is yet to drop a shot this week and hit all 14 fairways yesterday. The gap of five shots may seem large for these odds, but Rodgers has never led a Tour event after either 18 or 36 holes and the one time that he led after 54 holes - 2017 Farmers Insurance Open - he shot 72 in the final round to drop to 4th. LAY 20pts liability Trey Mullinax 150 19th
Nicholas Lindheim 150 55th
Jonathan Byrd 160 5th
Boo Weekley 380 60th
Vaughn Taylor 440 19th
The above are players who are available at triple-digit odds, but I would still price higher Pre-rd4 plays: LAY 20pts liability Charles Howell 44 19th
J.J. Henry 48 10th
Brian Harman 60 10th
Brian Campbell 140 12th
Lucas Glover 150 25th
Charley Hoffman 150 39th
It seems a long time since Howell was the 1st round leader and given that he ranks 38th in strokes gained - tee-to-green so far this week, it looks unlikely that his ball striking will improve enough to overcome the five-shot gap to Rodgers
Henry is a shot closer, btut given that he has just one top-10 finish in the last two seasons, it is no surprise that he ranks 136th in the FedEx Cup standings and is in danger of losing his Tour Card - that means a lot of pressure on him to at least maintain his top-10 position
Harman is six shots off the pace in 18th place and appears to be priced as low as this because he has shown good form this year and is a former winner here (2014); given the low-scoring on this course, he will need to shoot the lowest round of the week to have a realistic chance of winning from this position
The rest are players who are available at triple-digit odds, but I would still price higher
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