19-4; -13.70pts

A change in focus on the Betfair tips: BACK tips will now only be provided after rd2 and rd3, whereas the LAY tips will be merely presented as players whose prices are believed to be too low on Betfair.

Pre-tournament plays:

LAY 20pts

Tony Finau 55  40th
Patrick Reed 60  mc
Kevin Chappell 75  52nd
Billy Horschel 85  mc
Byeong Hun An 90  25th
Bud Cauley 90  25th
Adam Hadwin 100  mc
Webb Simpson 100  67th

Pre-rd3 plays:

BACK 1pt

Jason Dufner 1.98  1st
Okay, Jason Kokrak had a 5-shot lead after 36 holes of the Byron Nelson Championship and wasn't even leading after rd3, but he was coming off a run of 58th-56th-mdf-mc-67th-66th-mc so there was no indication that he would shoot 62 in rd2 and there had been little confidence in his game heading into the week, so there was little confidence that it would hold up under the pressure. Dufner, by contrast, has six top-15 finishes in his last 10 strokeplay events, ranks much higher than Kokrak in the World Rankings and does have a pedigree of winning events, winning four times on the PGA Tour already. He has also won in four of the last five times that he has held the 36 hole lead and his largest margin after 36 holes was two shots, this time it is five over a player who has never won on the PGA Tour; it is a six-shot gap to his most likely challenger, Rickie Fowler. In terms of the size of the lead, there have been 22 times that there has a been a 5-shot lead after 36 holes on the PGA Tour and that player has gone on to win in 17 of those 22 occasions. That means value at near evens with such a proven player.

LAY 20pts liability

Jordan Spieth 12  13th
Justin Thomas 27  4th
Matt Kuchar 44  4th
Kevin Kisner 65  6th
Emiliano Grillo 70  40th
Jamie Lovemark 80  10th
David Lingmerth 90  15th

Pre-rd4 plays:

BACK 1pt

Daniel Summerhays 3.6  10th
Bubba Watson 10.5  6th
Jamie Lovemark 36  10th
Summerhays has yet to win a PGA Tour event and is 0-for-3 when leading after 54 holes, but he has improved each time, shooting 73-72-69 in rd4 and finishing 5th-4th-2nd (via playoff loss) and in none of those occasions did he have a three-shot lead. His game has been extremely good this week - he leads in both strokes gained - tee-to-green and strokes gained - approaches - and I was impressed by his play yesterday when taking the lead. I'd price him nearer 3, so there is some value here
If Summerhays does struggle, Watson is well-placed to take advantage - he is 3rd place and four shots off the pace. He has a 3rd place finish here (2014) and finished in the top-5 in his penultime event prior to this week, so he looks capable of turning the clock back and securing his 10th PGA Tour win
This looks a tempting price on Lovemark who is a shot further back in 6th place. He leads the field in strokes gained - around the green which has kept him in contention throughout the week and he would have been much closer, but for a cold putter yesterday - he missed two birdies putts from inside six feet. He could certainly mount a challenge if he takes those chances today.

LAY 20pts

Jason Dufner 12.5  1st
Rickie Fowler 13  2nd
Kevin Streelman 85  13th
Shane Lowry 95  15th